Aaron Rodgers
Nova has Aaron Rodgers, 237th overall, QB, PIT, Tier 7, -88.3 VORP, 210.5 projected PPR points, 13.9 PPR points per game. Current PPR ADP is 174.5, so Nova is below the room on price. The modeled PPR range runs from 64 to 319 points.
Editorial preseason rankings are shown separately from directional model projections, VORP, and tiers.
The 2026 Role
Pittsburgh lists Rodgers first at quarterback ahead of Mason Rudolph. DK Metcalf and Michael Pittman Jr. appear in the first-team receiver group. Team source, checked September 7.
Our stored 2025 usage sample covers 16 games: 1.3 rushing attempts per game; 3.8 rushing yards per game. These describe last season, not a promise of the same 2026 workload.
Our Draft Read
Our editorial board places Aaron Rodgers at QB27 in PPR. The separate directional season projection is 210.5 PPR points. The ranking is draft order, not a claim that this projection has been newly validated. Captured PPR ADP 174.5 overall; ADP describes draft cost, not a positional finish prediction.
His starting access is most useful when your league requires multiple quarterbacks. In one-QB formats, avoid paying for career reputation instead of the current fantasy opportunity.
What Moves His Value
The upside: The passing game creates enough yardage and touchdowns to deliver productive matchup starts.
The downside: A low-scoring or run-heavy week can leave little fantasy margin when the points must come through the air.
Draft Question
What should change your decision on Aaron Rodgers?
Use current passing volume, red-zone efficiency and matchup quality. Historical name recognition is not a substitute for a weekly projection.
Compare his current price and positional alternatives on the preseason rankings board.
Aaron Rodgers is Nova's 237th-ranked player overall (QB, PIT), in Tier 7. Nova projects roughly 211 points this season, about 13.94 per game.
He is a reach by Nova's math: the market takes him around pick 175, ahead of Nova's 237.
His week-to-week profile grades B (Baseline). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks average.
-10% behind pace, a bounce-back candidate if the role holds.
Not one number. The probability of every weekly outcome, from the player’s real week-to-week range across 34 games.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 237 (QB27) | T7 | -88.3 | n/a | n/a | 63.9-319 |
| Half PPR | 288 (QB27) | T7 | -88.5 | n/a | n/a | 63.8-318.6 |
| Standard | 388 (QB27) | T8 | -88.7 | n/a | n/a | 63.7-318.2 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 115 (QB27) | T8 | -10.1 | n/a | n/a | 63.9-319 |
Nova season stat lines15.1 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Rushing Yards | 66.6 |
| Passing Yards | 2920.6 |
| Passing TDs | 21 |
2025 usage profile16 games
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
Tracked market season lines vs Novaseason betting market vs Nova’s projection
| Stat | DK line | Market lean | Nova | Δ% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing TDs | 21.5 | 52% over | 21 | -2.3% |
| Passing Yards | 3149.5 | 49% over | 2920.6 | -7.3% |
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | PIT vs NYJ | 244-4-0 pass, 1--1-0 rush | 25.7 |
| W2 | PIT vs SEA | 203-1-2 pass, 1-3-0 rush | 10.4 |
| W3 | PIT vs NE | 139-2-1 pass, 4-1-0 rush | 11.7 |
| W4 | PIT vs MIN | 200-1-0 pass, 3-8-0 rush | 12.8 |
| W6 | PIT vs CLE | 235-2-0 pass, 1-1-0 rush | 17.5 |
| W7 | PIT vs CIN | 249-4-2 pass, 1-6-0 rush | 22.6 |
| W8 | PIT vs GB | 219-2-0 pass | 16.8 |
| W9 | PIT vs IND | 203-1-0 pass | 12.1 |
| W10 | PIT vs LAC | 161-1-2 pass | 6.4 |
| W11 | PIT vs CIN | 116-1-0 pass, 1-8-0 rush | 9.4 |
| W13 | PIT vs BUF | 117-0-0 pass | 2.7 |
| W14 | PIT vs BAL | 284-1-0 pass, 2-0-1 rush | 21.5 |
| W15 | PIT vs MIA | 224-2-0 pass | 17.0 |
| W16 | PIT vs DET | 266-1-0 pass, 2-9-0 rush | 15.5 |
| W17 | PIT vs CLE | 168-0-0 pass, 1-6-0 rush | 7.3 |
| W18 | PIT vs BAL | 294-1-0 pass, 1-20-0 rush | 17.8 |
These answers are generated from the same NovaPredict player page data: Nova Rank, VORP, ADP, probability bands, team context, usage, schedule, and tracked market coverage where available.
What is the AI fantasy football prediction for Aaron Rodgers in 2026?
Nova ranks him No. 237 overall in Tier 7 with a 211-point season budget (13.94 PPR points per game) for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Full probability bands are not available for this player in the current data run. His bye is Week 9.
Is Aaron Rodgers undervalued or overvalued by AI rankings?
Current PPR ADP is 174.5, around pick 15.06. Nova is higher than the draft room by about 13 picks.
What does NovaPredict project for Aaron Rodgers in PPR leagues?
Nova's PPR view for Aaron Rodgers is 211 season points at 13.94 points per game. His PPR VORP is -88.3, which is the value Nova sees above replacement at QB.
How risky is Aaron Rodgers based on AI probability bands and DNA grade?
His DNA grade is B, based on 34 logged games, so the AI view treats his week-to-week volatility as baseline. Full probability bands are not available for this player in the current data run.
Should I draft Aaron Rodgers at current ADP?
At ADP 174.5, Aaron Rodgers is priced as a QB on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Nova is higher than the draft room by about 13 picks. Schedule context: early SOS is 17.7 and playoff SOS is 18.3 on Nova's 1-32 scale.
What team context affects Aaron Rodgers's 2026 fantasy outlook?
Aaron Rodgers is listed with the Pittsburgh Steelers as a QB. The 2025 usage profile includes 16 games and a 96% snap share, plus a 0% target share and a 6% carry share. Team context matters because nearby Pittsburgh Steelers fantasy pieces on this board include DK Metcalf, Germie Bernard, Jaylen Warren.
What market or injury context should I know for Aaron Rodgers?
Tracked market lines are loaded for 2 season stats, so Nova can compare its stat projection against the market. Profile note: Nova has Aaron Rodgers, 237th overall, QB, PIT, Tier 7, -88.3 VORP, 210.5 projected PPR points, 13.9 PPR points per game.