Aaron Rodgers
QBPIT· bye 9· Nova #281 · T7DNA B
-85
VORP
107.1
ADP
13.06
PPR / game
Nova overview
Aaron Rodgers is Nova's 281st-ranked player overall (QB, PIT), in Tier 7. Nova projects roughly 197 points this season, about 13.06 per game.
There is no market ADP on him yet, so this is Nova's read alone.
Nova gives him about a 6% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 62 points (floor) to 298 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades B (Baseline). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks average.
Usage & opportunity2025 · 16 games
Snap share96%
Target share0%
Carry share6%
Air-yards share-0%
Catch rate100%
WOPR (opportunity)0.001
Red-zone opps (1 TD)3
17.7
Early SOS (wk 1-4)
18.3
Playoff SOS (wk 15-17)
9
Bye week
Season budget pace
full board →-10%Behind
46.1 of 180.4 banked · 4wrevised 170.4
-10% behind pace, a bounce-back candidate if the role holds.
Per-game points distribution
31%
Bust <10 pts
53%
Solid 10–20 pts
16%
Boom >20 pts
Not one number. The probability of every weekly outcome, from the player’s real week-to-week range across 34 games.
Season outcome range
floor 62 ptmed 197 ptceil 298 pt
6%
P(tier-1)
16%
P(tier-2+)
QB17-QB46
likely finish
Report card
Upside · P(tier-1)6%
Opportunity · snaps96%
Rank edge vs market-174
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 281 | T7 | -85 | 6% | QB17-QB46 | 62.4-297.9 |
| Half PPR | 324 | T8 | -82.6 | 6% | QB17-QB46 | 62.3-297.5 |
| Standard | 431 | T9 | -79.8 | 6% | QB17-QB46 | 62.3-297.2 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 203 | T7 | -54 | 6% | QB17-QB46 | 62.4-297.9 |
Nova season stat lines14 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Rushing Yards | 67.4 |
| Passing Yards | 2671.8 |
| Passing TDs | 19.1 |
2025 usage profile16 games
96%
snap share
1.3
carries / game
6%
team carry share
2.9
yards / carry
3
red-zone opportunities (1 TDs)
+0.6
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+3
TD pace vs position (25 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
0
broken tackles forced
4.5
rush yards before contact / g
0.2
rush yards after contact / g
0
drops
0%
drop rate
79.2
passer rating when targeted
85
times pressured
16.3%
pressure rate faced
97
times blitzed
29
times sacked
27
times hurried
29
times hit
17.8%
bad throw rate
No season futures captured for this player yet. The market board rotates and coverage grows Mon/Wed/Fri.
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | PIT vs NYJ | 244-4-0 pass, 1--1-0 rush | 25.7 |
| W2 | PIT vs SEA | 203-1-2 pass, 1-3-0 rush | 10.4 |
| W3 | PIT vs NE | 139-2-1 pass, 4-1-0 rush | 11.7 |
| W4 | PIT vs MIN | 200-1-0 pass, 3-8-0 rush | 12.8 |
| W6 | PIT vs CLE | 235-2-0 pass, 1-1-0 rush | 17.5 |
| W7 | PIT vs CIN | 249-4-2 pass, 1-6-0 rush | 22.6 |
| W8 | PIT vs GB | 219-2-0 pass | 16.8 |
| W9 | PIT vs IND | 203-1-0 pass | 12.1 |
| W10 | PIT vs LAC | 161-1-2 pass | 6.4 |
| W11 | PIT vs CIN | 116-1-0 pass, 1-8-0 rush | 9.4 |
| W13 | PIT vs BUF | 117-0-0 pass | 2.7 |
| W14 | PIT vs BAL | 284-1-0 pass, 2-0-1 rush | 21.5 |
| W15 | PIT vs MIA | 224-2-0 pass | 17.0 |
| W16 | PIT vs DET | 266-1-0 pass, 2-9-0 rush | 15.5 |
| W17 | PIT vs CLE | 168-0-0 pass, 1-6-0 rush | 7.3 |
| W18 | PIT vs BAL | 294-1-0 pass, 1-20-0 rush | 17.8 |