Accountability Report
2026 · Week 4 · PPR · Final results against forecasts locked before kickoff.
Current forecasts: Week 8 rankings and Start/Sit comparisons. Results are graded after games finish.
This is a graded record of directional forecasts. It does not establish validated model accuracy. Updated 2026-10-11T15:28:52Z.
202
Players graded
5.58
Mean absolute error · points
3.97
Distribution score · lower is better
76.2%
Inside P10–P90 · target 80%
What this record includes
Only forecasts locked before their game kickoff are graded. Missing box-score players are excluded, never assigned zero.
Start/sit results require verdicts stored in the original lock; older locks without verdicts are not reconstructed.
Final results include passing, rushing and receiving production, interceptions and lost fumbles under our published PPR scoring. Each graded report references the original immutable forecast locks.
| Player | Median | P10 | P90 | Actual | Error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tetairoa McMillan | 14.6 | 6.9 | 26.7 | 45.2 | 30.6 | MISS HIGH |
| CeeDee Lamb | 15.3 | 7.5 | 27.2 | 41.3 | 26 | MISS HIGH |
| Tyquan Thornton | 4.3 | 0.8 | 12.6 | 28.1 | 23.8 | MISS HIGH |
| Kyren Williams | 13.3 | 6.1 | 25.5 | 36.7 | 23.4 | MISS HIGH |
| Brian Robinson Jr. | 3.5 | 0.5 | 11.3 | 25.7 | 22.2 | MISS HIGH |
| Kyle Monangai | 7.8 | 2.7 | 18.0 | 28 | 20.2 | MISS HIGH |
| Keon Coleman | 3.6 | 0.5 | 12.2 | 23.6 | 20 | MISS HIGH |
| Emanuel Wilson | 10.5 | 4.2 | 22.5 | 27 | 16.5 | MISS HIGH |
| Nico Collins | 14.5 | 7.0 | 26.1 | 30.8 | 16.3 | MISS HIGH |
| Javonte Williams | 15.1 | 6.5 | 27.9 | 31.3 | 16.2 | MISS HIGH |
| Romeo Doubs | 8.1 | 2.6 | 18.2 | 23.8 | 15.7 | MISS HIGH |
| T.J. Hockenson | 9.6 | 3.1 | 20.7 | 24.9 | 15.3 | MISS HIGH |
| Tee Higgins | 12.7 | 5.2 | 24.5 | 26.7 | 14 | MISS HIGH |
| Darius Cooper | 4.7 | 1.1 | 12.9 | 18.3 | 13.6 | MISS HIGH |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 18.6 | 9.2 | 31.7 | 5.7 | -12.9 | MISS LOW |
| Parker Washington | 14.9 | 7.7 | 26.6 | 2 | -12.9 | MISS LOW |
| Kenneth Walker III | 18.7 | 9.7 | 31.4 | 30.9 | 12.2 | IN RANGE |
| Puka Nacua | 15.7 | 7.8 | 27.6 | 27.7 | 12 | MISS HIGH |
| Carnell Tate | 9.5 | 3.1 | 18.9 | 21.5 | 12 | MISS HIGH |
| Sam LaPorta | 10.5 | 3.7 | 21.4 | 22.4 | 11.9 | MISS HIGH |
| Malik Nabers | 11.5 | 4.6 | 22.3 | 23.2 | 11.7 | MISS HIGH |
| Ollie Gordon II | 6.3 | 1.8 | 15.3 | 18 | 11.7 | MISS HIGH |
| Saquon Barkley | 13.5 | 7.0 | 25.2 | 2 | -11.5 | MISS LOW |
| Alvin Kamara | 11.3 | 4.7 | 23.1 | 22.8 | 11.5 | IN RANGE |
| Zay Flowers | 14.5 | 7.1 | 26.2 | 25.8 | 11.3 | IN RANGE |
| Malik Willis | 13.3 | 6.8 | 22.3 | 2.5 | -10.8 | MISS LOW |
| Michael Mayer | 5.7 | 1.1 | 15.0 | 16.2 | 10.5 | MISS HIGH |
| Dohnte Meyers | 4.9 | 1.2 | 13.3 | 15.2 | 10.3 | MISS HIGH |
| RJ Harvey | 9.2 | 3.4 | 19.9 | 19.3 | 10.1 | IN RANGE |
| Garrett Wilson | 15.7 | 7.7 | 27.6 | 5.7 | -10 | MISS LOW |
| Chuba Hubbard | 15.9 | 7.6 | 28.5 | 25.9 | 10 | IN RANGE |
| Isaiah Williams | 5.4 | 1.1 | 14.1 | 15.3 | 9.9 | MISS HIGH |
| Deebo Samuel | 8.1 | 2.2 | 18.9 | 18 | 9.9 | IN RANGE |
| Ladd McConkey | 9.6 | 3.2 | 19.3 | 0 | -9.6 | MISS LOW |
| Isaac TeSlaa | 3.9 | 0.7 | 12.2 | 13.5 | 9.6 | MISS HIGH |
| Kenyon Sadiq | 9.5 | 3.2 | 19.9 | 0 | -9.5 | MISS LOW |
| Jeremiyah Love | 15.8 | 7.6 | 28.3 | 6.5 | -9.3 | MISS LOW |
| Jahan Dotson | 4.3 | 1.0 | 12.8 | 13.4 | 9.1 | MISS HIGH |
| Jaylin Noel | 2.9 | 0.4 | 10.3 | 11.9 | 9 | MISS HIGH |
| Dalton Kincaid | 10.5 | 3.6 | 21.6 | 1.7 | -8.8 | MISS LOW |
| Rome Odunze | 6.6 | 1.4 | 16.2 | 15.4 | 8.8 | IN RANGE |
| Brenton Strange | 8.1 | 2.3 | 18.1 | 16.5 | 8.4 | IN RANGE |
| Malachi Fields | 4.8 | 1.0 | 13.2 | 13.2 | 8.4 | IN RANGE |
| Elijah Higgins | 1.6 | 0.1 | 8.1 | 9.9 | 8.3 | MISS HIGH |
| DJ Moore | 10.7 | 3.9 | 22.0 | 2.7 | -8 | MISS LOW |
| Devaughn Vele | 9.5 | 3.1 | 19.8 | 17.4 | 7.9 | IN RANGE |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 25.3 | 12.9 | 38.7 | 17.7 | -7.6 | IN RANGE |
| Cam Skattebo | 15.1 | 7.0 | 27.7 | 7.6 | -7.5 | IN RANGE |
| Tyler Allgeier | 5.4 | 0.9 | 18.2 | 12.9 | 7.5 | IN RANGE |
| Tucker Kraft | 9 | 3.1 | 19.0 | 16.5 | 7.5 | IN RANGE |
| Matthew Stafford | 17.1 | 8.9 | 27.1 | 9.68 | -7.4 | IN RANGE |
| Trevor Lawrence | 20.3 | 11.3 | 31.3 | 13.08 | -7.2 | IN RANGE |
| David Montgomery | 11.5 | 4.2 | 23.7 | 4.3 | -7.2 | IN RANGE |
| Travis Kelce | 10.7 | 3.7 | 22.1 | 3.5 | -7.2 | MISS LOW |
| Courtland Sutton | 8.6 | 2.4 | 20.2 | 1.4 | -7.2 | MISS LOW |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 2.4 | 0.4 | 10.7 | 9.5 | 7.1 | IN RANGE |
| Rashid Shaheed | 5.2 | 1.1 | 14.7 | 12.3 | 7.1 | IN RANGE |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 19.6 | 10.2 | 32.4 | 12.6 | -7 | IN RANGE |
| Tyson Bagent | 15.6 | 7.7 | 25.7 | 8.82 | -6.8 | IN RANGE |
| Mike Gesicki | 6.3 | 1.3 | 16.0 | 13 | 6.7 | IN RANGE |
| Geno Smith | 15.2 | 8.1 | 24.8 | 8.76 | -6.5 | IN RANGE |
| Davante Adams | 13.7 | 5.9 | 25.8 | 7.2 | -6.5 | IN RANGE |
| Dalton Schultz | 9.4 | 3.2 | 20.2 | 2.9 | -6.5 | MISS LOW |
| Jameson Williams | 9.7 | 3.3 | 20.4 | 16.2 | 6.5 | IN RANGE |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 10.1 | 3.9 | 21.2 | 16.4 | 6.3 | IN RANGE |
| D'Andre Swift | 13.7 | 6.5 | 26.0 | 7.4 | -6.3 | IN RANGE |
| Chris Bell | 6.3 | 1.4 | 14.3 | 0 | -6.3 | MISS LOW |
| Drake Maye | 18.2 | 10.0 | 28.6 | 24.16 | 6 | IN RANGE |
| Jacoby Brissett | 16.3 | 8.4 | 26.3 | 10.44 | -5.9 | IN RANGE |
| Bucky Irving | 11.9 | 5.7 | 23.1 | 6.1 | -5.8 | IN RANGE |
| Kyler Murray | 17.3 | 8.8 | 27.9 | 11.48 | -5.8 | IN RANGE |
| Kirk Cousins | 14.8 | 7.4 | 24.5 | 20.6 | 5.8 | IN RANGE |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 10.5 | 4.4 | 20.6 | 4.8 | -5.7 | IN RANGE |
| Josh Allen | 24.1 | 13.3 | 37.2 | 18.52 | -5.6 | IN RANGE |
| Christian Watson | 13.3 | 5.9 | 24.6 | 7.7 | -5.6 | IN RANGE |
| Theo Johnson | 2.6 | 0.3 | 10.0 | 8.1 | 5.5 | IN RANGE |
| Jaylen Wright | 6.2 | 1.7 | 14.9 | 0.7 | -5.5 | MISS LOW |
| George Holani | 8.5 | 2.9 | 19.3 | 3 | -5.5 | IN RANGE |
| Justin Herbert | 14.7 | 7.7 | 24.1 | 9.56 | -5.2 | IN RANGE |
| Keaton Mitchell | 6.2 | 2.1 | 14.6 | 11.3 | 5.1 | IN RANGE |
| Tory Horton | 2.5 | 0.2 | 9.5 | 7.6 | 5.1 | IN RANGE |
| Bijan Robinson | 22.6 | 11.8 | 35.7 | 27.7 | 5.1 | IN RANGE |
| Tyjae Spears | 6.6 | 2.4 | 14.8 | 1.6 | -5 | MISS LOW |
| Samaje Perine | 5.6 | 1.7 | 14.2 | 0.7 | -4.9 | MISS LOW |
| C.J. Stroud | 18.1 | 9.7 | 28.5 | 23.08 | 4.9 | IN RANGE |
| AJ Barner | 7.1 | 1.8 | 17.3 | 2.2 | -4.9 | IN RANGE |
| Trey McBride | 14.9 | 7.3 | 26.7 | 10.1 | -4.8 | IN RANGE |
| Emeka Egbuka | 8 | 2.3 | 17.6 | 3.3 | -4.7 | IN RANGE |
| Khalil Shakir | 8.6 | 2.6 | 19.0 | 13.2 | 4.6 | IN RANGE |
| Kalif Raymond | 7.2 | 1.8 | 16.9 | 2.6 | -4.6 | IN RANGE |
| Christian McCaffrey | 20.6 | 9.9 | 34.1 | 16 | -4.6 | IN RANGE |
| Tyler Higbee | 7.2 | 1.8 | 16.8 | 11.7 | 4.5 | IN RANGE |
| Brock Bowers | 16.1 | 8.3 | 27.9 | 20.6 | 4.5 | IN RANGE |
| Michael Wilson | 12.1 | 5.5 | 23.0 | 16.5 | 4.4 | IN RANGE |
| Isaiah Likely | 9.2 | 3.1 | 19.2 | 13.6 | 4.4 | IN RANGE |
| Kenny Gainwell | 6.3 | 2.1 | 16.1 | 10.7 | 4.4 | IN RANGE |
| Darnell Mooney | 4.3 | 0.9 | 11.9 | 0 | -4.3 | MISS LOW |
| Mark Andrews | 9.5 | 3.2 | 20.5 | 13.7 | 4.2 | IN RANGE |
| George Kittle | 12.8 | 5.7 | 24.0 | 17 | 4.2 | IN RANGE |
| Tyler Shough | 20.1 | 11.1 | 31.3 | 15.94 | -4.2 | IN RANGE |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 8.3 | 3.1 | 18.5 | 4.2 | -4.1 | IN RANGE |
| Jauan Jennings | 5.8 | 1.3 | 14.6 | 1.8 | -4 | IN RANGE |
| Bo Nix | 17.6 | 9.1 | 28.1 | 13.56 | -4 | IN RANGE |
| Hunter Henry | 7.3 | 1.9 | 17.2 | 11.2 | 3.9 | IN RANGE |
| Colston Loveland | 7.8 | 2.2 | 18.1 | 11.7 | 3.9 | IN RANGE |
| Brian Thomas Jr | 5.8 | 1.2 | 15.2 | 9.7 | 3.9 | IN RANGE |
| Jameis Winston | 14.1 | 7.0 | 23.8 | 18 | 3.9 | IN RANGE |
| Tank Bigsby | 1.6 | 0.2 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 3.9 | IN RANGE |
| Gunnar Helm | 5.4 | 1.4 | 13.5 | 1.5 | -3.9 | IN RANGE |
| George Pickens | 13.4 | 6.3 | 24.7 | 9.5 | -3.9 | IN RANGE |
| Sam Darnold | 17.2 | 8.7 | 27.5 | 13.32 | -3.9 | IN RANGE |
| MarShawn Lloyd | 6.1 | 1.5 | 15.3 | 9.9 | 3.8 | IN RANGE |
| Joe Burrow | 20.1 | 11.4 | 31.0 | 23.72 | 3.6 | IN RANGE |
| Jordan Love | 16.7 | 8.7 | 26.6 | 13.08 | -3.6 | IN RANGE |
| Josh Cameron | 2.7 | 0.3 | 10.2 | 6.2 | 3.5 | IN RANGE |
| Ashton Jeanty | 15.1 | 7.1 | 27.7 | 18.6 | 3.5 | IN RANGE |
| Chris Godwin | 5.7 | 1.2 | 14.4 | 9.1 | 3.4 | IN RANGE |
| Tony Pollard | 9.6 | 4.2 | 19.9 | 13 | 3.4 | IN RANGE |
| Jordan Addison | 12.5 | 5.2 | 24.2 | 9.1 | -3.4 | IN RANGE |
| Emmett Johnson | 5.4 | 1.6 | 13.9 | 2 | -3.4 | IN RANGE |
| Omarion Hampton | 9.9 | 4.1 | 20.9 | 13.3 | 3.4 | IN RANGE |
| Chase Brown | 15.8 | 7.2 | 28.5 | 19.1 | 3.3 | IN RANGE |
| Jalon Daniels | 14.7 | 7.4 | 24.5 | 11.42 | -3.3 | IN RANGE |
| Juwan Johnson | 8.6 | 2.7 | 18.6 | 11.9 | 3.3 | IN RANGE |
| Skyy Moore | 4 | 0.8 | 11.8 | 0.8 | -3.2 | MISS LOW |
| Xavier Worthy | 7.8 | 2.0 | 18.1 | 11 | 3.2 | IN RANGE |
| Evan Engram | 4.7 | 1.1 | 13.2 | 1.6 | -3.1 | IN RANGE |
| Jaylen Waddle | 11.5 | 4.5 | 22.4 | 14.5 | 3 | IN RANGE |
| Cooper Kupp | 5.3 | 1.1 | 14.7 | 2.3 | -3 | IN RANGE |
| Cody White | 2.7 | 0.3 | 10.1 | 5.6 | 2.9 | IN RANGE |
| Mike Evans | 9.7 | 2.9 | 20.6 | 12.6 | 2.9 | IN RANGE |
| Bryce Young | 18.5 | 9.9 | 29.2 | 21.46 | 2.9 | IN RANGE |
| Michael Penix Jr. | 15.6 | 8.0 | 25.5 | 12.72 | -2.9 | IN RANGE |
| DeMario Douglas | 6.3 | 1.4 | 15.1 | 3.5 | -2.8 | IN RANGE |
| Braelon Allen | 11.5 | 5.3 | 22.9 | 8.7 | -2.8 | IN RANGE |
| Kyle Williams | 2.7 | 0.3 | 9.7 | 0 | -2.7 | MISS LOW |
| Jakobi Meyers | 9 | 2.7 | 19.2 | 6.3 | -2.7 | IN RANGE |
| Jalen Hurts | 16.2 | 8.0 | 27.0 | 13.52 | -2.7 | IN RANGE |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 8.3 | 2.6 | 17.0 | 11 | 2.7 | IN RANGE |
| Jake Ferguson | 6.8 | 1.4 | 16.3 | 4.1 | -2.7 | IN RANGE |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 18.2 | 8.6 | 31.3 | 15.5 | -2.7 | IN RANGE |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 2.7 | 0.3 | 10.1 | 0 | -2.7 | MISS LOW |
| Oronde Gadsden II | 6.2 | 1.3 | 15.5 | 8.8 | 2.6 | IN RANGE |
| Derrick Henry | 18.4 | 9.4 | 30.5 | 15.9 | -2.5 | IN RANGE |
| Pat Bryant | 5.2 | 1.1 | 14.1 | 7.7 | 2.5 | IN RANGE |
| Quentin Johnston | 7.4 | 2.1 | 16.7 | 5 | -2.4 | IN RANGE |
| Makai Lemon | 7.9 | 2.2 | 17.2 | 5.7 | -2.2 | IN RANGE |
| Malik Washington | 9.8 | 3.6 | 19.8 | 12 | 2.2 | IN RANGE |
| Kevin Coleman Jr. | 3.5 | 0.6 | 10.4 | 1.3 | -2.2 | IN RANGE |
| Patrick Mahomes | 19.2 | 10.3 | 30.0 | 17 | -2.2 | IN RANGE |
| Ty Johnson | 5.3 | 1.5 | 13.7 | 3.2 | -2.1 | IN RANGE |
| Chris Olave | 17.5 | 9.2 | 29.8 | 19.6 | 2.1 | IN RANGE |
| Najee Harris | 3 | 0.3 | 10.8 | 1 | -2 | IN RANGE |
| Zach Ertz | 5.3 | 1.1 | 13.5 | 3.3 | -2 | IN RANGE |
| Tez Johnson | 2.7 | 0.3 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 2 | IN RANGE |
| Cade Otton | 5.9 | 1.3 | 14.2 | 7.7 | 1.8 | IN RANGE |
| Adam Trautman | 1.8 | 0.1 | 8.5 | 0 | -1.8 | MISS LOW |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 5.9 | 1.2 | 14.8 | 7.6 | 1.7 | IN RANGE |
| Tre Harris | 7.3 | 2.2 | 15.8 | 9 | 1.7 | IN RANGE |
| Kaleb Johnson | 3.8 | 0.5 | 12.2 | 2.2 | -1.6 | IN RANGE |
| Justice Hill | 6.1 | 1.9 | 14.5 | 4.5 | -1.6 | IN RANGE |
| Kayshon Boutte | 5 | 1.1 | 13.8 | 6.6 | 1.6 | IN RANGE |
| Jared Goff | 18.9 | 10.3 | 29.7 | 20.48 | 1.6 | IN RANGE |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 6.7 | 1.5 | 15.9 | 8.2 | 1.5 | IN RANGE |
| Tai Felton | 3.9 | 0.7 | 11.7 | 2.4 | -1.5 | IN RANGE |
| Darren Waller | 8.1 | 2.4 | 18.6 | 6.6 | -1.5 | IN RANGE |
| Blake Corum | 4.5 | 0.8 | 12.6 | 3.1 | -1.4 | IN RANGE |
| Brycen Tremayne | 6.6 | 1.6 | 15.7 | 5.2 | -1.4 | IN RANGE |
| Kyle Pitts | 6.3 | 1.7 | 16.3 | 7.7 | 1.4 | IN RANGE |
| Foster Moreau | 2.4 | 0.2 | 9.5 | 1.1 | -1.3 | IN RANGE |
| Kaelon Black | 2.6 | 0.1 | 10.3 | 1.3 | -1.3 | IN RANGE |
| Sione Vaki | 1.4 | 0.3 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 1.3 | IN RANGE |
| Tommy Tremble | 3.9 | 0.7 | 12.2 | 5.2 | 1.3 | IN RANGE |
| Luther Burden III | 10.2 | 3.4 | 20.9 | 11.4 | 1.2 | IN RANGE |
| Kendre Miller | 3.1 | 0.3 | 11.3 | 1.9 | -1.2 | IN RANGE |
| Drake London | 15.8 | 7.8 | 27.8 | 14.6 | -1.2 | IN RANGE |
| Lamar Jackson | 20 | 10.8 | 31.5 | 18.88 | -1.1 | IN RANGE |
| Cam Ward | 12.4 | 6.1 | 20.9 | 13.58 | 1.1 | IN RANGE |
| Elic Ayomanor | 4.3 | 1.0 | 11.6 | 3.2 | -1.1 | IN RANGE |
| Dak Prescott | 19.2 | 10.6 | 29.7 | 18.1 | -1.1 | IN RANGE |
| Noah Gray | 2.7 | 0.3 | 9.9 | 3.7 | 1 | IN RANGE |
| Austin Hooper | 2.9 | 0.3 | 10.5 | 1.9 | -1 | IN RANGE |
| James Cook | 15.5 | 8.1 | 27.6 | 16.3 | 0.8 | IN RANGE |
| Joshua Palmer | 2.1 | 0.2 | 14.1 | 1.3 | -0.8 | IN RANGE |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 11.9 | 5.4 | 23.7 | 11.1 | -0.8 | IN RANGE |
| Brock Purdy | 18.9 | 10.1 | 29.7 | 19.62 | 0.8 | IN RANGE |
| Mike Washington Jr. | 2 | 0.4 | 9.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | IN RANGE |
| Brock Wright | 2.5 | 1.1 | 9.0 | 1.8 | -0.7 | IN RANGE |
| Dawson Knox | 2.8 | 0.3 | 10.4 | 3.3 | 0.5 | IN RANGE |
| Cole Kmet | 2.8 | 0.3 | 10.5 | 3.3 | 0.5 | IN RANGE |
| Jonnu Smith | 2.4 | 0.2 | 9.5 | 2.9 | 0.5 | IN RANGE |
| Tre Tucker | 7.9 | 2.2 | 17.3 | 8.4 | 0.5 | IN RANGE |
| Mack Hollins | 8.7 | 2.8 | 18.4 | 8.3 | -0.4 | IN RANGE |
| Rashod Bateman | 6.2 | 1.4 | 15.5 | 6.6 | 0.4 | IN RANGE |
| Calvin Ridley | 1.9 | 0.1 | 8.6 | 2.3 | 0.4 | IN RANGE |
| Aaron Jones | 16.4 | 7.8 | 29.0 | 16.8 | 0.4 | IN RANGE |
| Matthew Golden | 11.5 | 4.6 | 22.0 | 11.7 | 0.2 | IN RANGE |
| Ryan Flournoy | 7.5 | 2.1 | 16.7 | 7.7 | 0.2 | IN RANGE |
| AJ Dillon | 1.5 | 0.3 | 7.5 | 1.7 | 0.2 | IN RANGE |
| Ted Hurst III | 4.6 | 0.4 | 12.8 | 4.5 | -0.1 | IN RANGE |
| J.K. Dobbins | 7.1 | 2.9 | 17.2 | 7.2 | 0.1 | IN RANGE |
| Woody Marks | 8.2 | 3.0 | 18.3 | 8.2 | 0 | IN RANGE |