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Glossary

Every Nova metric, in plain English.

No jargon walls. Each term is what it means, how to read it, and why it matters for a real decision. 12 definitions.

ADP and ECR

ADP is average draft position from real drafts; ECR is expert consensus rank. NovaPredict shows both as the market, for contrast with Nova Rank.

Brier score + skill

Brier score grades NovaPredict's boom and bust probabilities against what happened. Skill shows whether those calls beat plain guessing.

Calibration ledger

The calibration ledger is NovaPredict's public check that start/sit win probabilities mean what they say: 72% calls should hit about 72% of the time.

Coverage

Coverage measures how often a player's actual result lands inside NovaPredict's floor-to-ceiling band, checked against an 80% target.

CRPS

CRPS is the accuracy score NovaPredict publishes that grades a full predicted range of outcomes against what actually happened. Lower is better.

Divergence Score

Divergence Score is NovaPredict's uncertainty-adjusted measure of how far its projection sits from the Vegas market. Positive means higher than Vegas.

DNA grade

DNA grade is NovaPredict's week-to-week consistency grade, from steadiest to swingiest, built from multiple seasons of a player's game logs.

Nova Budget

Nova Budget is NovaPredict's projected full-season fantasy points for a player. The season-long total behind the ranks, tiers, and auction values.

Nova Rank

Nova Rank is NovaPredict's independent ranking of a player by value over replacement (VORP). Nova's opinion, separate from ADP and the experts.

Probability bands

Probability bands are NovaPredict's floor (10th percentile), median, and ceiling (90th percentile) outcomes, plus boom%, bust%, and tier-1 odds.

Tiers

Tiers are NovaPredict's groupings of players by real drop-offs in value, so you can see exactly where a position falls off a cliff on draft day.

VORP / value over replacement

VORP (value over replacement) measures how many fantasy points a player adds over a freely available replacement at his position. Nova ranks by it.

See these metrics in action: how to judge a fantasy projection →