Bo Nix
Nova has Bo Nix, 80th overall, QB, DEN, Tier 7, 16.5 VORP, 315.4 projected PPR points, 19.2 PPR points per game. Current PPR ADP is 111.8, so Nova is ahead of the room on price. The modeled PPR range runs from 98 to 474 points.
Editorial preseason rankings are shown separately from directional model projections, VORP, and tiers.
The 2026 Role
Denver's August 25 chart lists Nix first at quarterback. Its receiving group includes Courtland Sutton, Jaylen Waddle and Evan Engram, giving the passing outlook several distinct targets rather than a single-player dependency. Team source, checked September 7.
Our stored 2025 usage sample covers 17 games: 4.9 rushing attempts per game; 20.9 rushing yards per game. These describe last season, not a promise of the same 2026 workload.
Our Draft Read
Our editorial board places Bo Nix at QB10 in PPR. The separate directional season projection is 315.4 PPR points. The ranking is draft order, not a claim that this projection has been newly validated. Captured PPR ADP 111.8 overall; ADP describes draft cost, not a positional finish prediction.
He works for a patient one-QB build and as a starting option in Superflex. Do not mistake our editorial ranking for new proof that every part of the older season projection will occur.
What Moves His Value
The upside: Passing production improves while his rushing involvement remains useful, reducing the need for an exceptional passing-touchdown season.
The downside: If rushing scores fade or passing efficiency stalls, a secure NFL job can still translate into ordinary fantasy weeks.
Draft Question
What should change your decision on Bo Nix?
Look for sustained passing volume and continued rushing involvement. Separate repeatable attempts from isolated touchdown spikes when assessing whether the breakout is arriving.
Compare his current price and positional alternatives on the preseason rankings board.
Bo Nix is Nova's 80th-ranked player overall (QB, DEN), in Tier 7. Nova projects roughly 315 points this season, about 19.23 per game.
He is a value: the market drafts him around pick 112, well behind Nova's 80, so he tends to return more than his cost.
His week-to-week profile grades B (Baseline). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks tough.
+34% ahead of pace, some regression likely, a sell-high window.
Not one number. The probability of every weekly outcome, from the player’s real week-to-week range across 34 games.
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 80 (QB10) | T7 | 16.5 | n/a | n/a | 97.8-473.6 |
| Half PPR | 75 (QB10) | T7 | 16.4 | n/a | n/a | 97.8-473.3 |
| Standard | 74 (QB10) | T8 | 16.4 | n/a | n/a | 97.7-473.2 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 22 (QB10) | T5 | 94.7 | n/a | n/a | 97.8-473.6 |
Nova season stat lines16.4 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Rushing Yards | 377.1 |
| Rushing TDs | 4.5 |
| Passing Yards | 3813.8 |
| Passing TDs | 26.1 |
2025 usage profile17 games
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
Tracked market season lines vs Novaseason betting market vs Nova’s projection
| Stat | DK line | Market lean | Nova | Δ% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing TDs | 24.5 | 49% over | 26.1 | +6.5% |
| Passing Yards | 3499.5 | 50% over | 3813.8 | +9% |
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | DEN vs TEN | 176-1-2 pass, 8-18-0 rush | 6.8 |
| W2 | DEN vs IND | 206-3-1 pass, 3-20-0 rush | 20.2 |
| W3 | DEN vs LAC | 153-1-0 pass, 8-33-0 rush | 13.4 |
| W4 | DEN vs CIN | 326-2-1 pass, 6-7-1 rush | 25.7 |
| W5 | DEN vs PHI | 242-1-0 pass, 3-22-0 rush | 17.9 |
| W6 | DEN vs NYJ | 174-1-0 pass, 5-24-0 rush | 13.4 |
| W7 | DEN vs NYG | 279-2-0 pass, 5-48-2 rush | 40.0 |
| W8 | DEN vs DAL | 247-4-1 pass, 1--1-0 rush | 23.8 |
| W9 | DEN vs HOU | 173-2-1 pass, 3-36-0 rush | 18.5 |
| W10 | DEN vs LV | 150-1-2 pass, 5--2-0 rush | 5.8 |
| W11 | DEN vs KC | 295-0-0 pass, 3-8-0 rush | 12.6 |
| W13 | DEN vs WAS | 321-1-1 pass, 2-16-0 rush | 16.4 |
| W14 | DEN vs LV | 212-0-0 pass, 3-15-1 rush | 16.0 |
| W15 | DEN vs GB | 302-4-0 pass, 7-10-0 rush | 29.1 |
| W16 | DEN vs JAX | 352-1-1 pass, 4-11-0 rush | 15.2 |
| W17 | DEN vs KC | 182-1-1 pass, 9-42-1 rush | 19.5 |
| W18 | DEN vs LAC | 141-0-0 pass, 8-49-0 rush | 10.5 |
These answers are generated from the same NovaPredict player page data: Nova Rank, VORP, ADP, probability bands, team context, usage, schedule, and tracked market coverage where available.
What is the AI fantasy football prediction for Bo Nix in 2026?
Nova ranks him No. 80 overall in Tier 7 with a 315-point season budget (19.23 PPR points per game) for the Denver Broncos. Full probability bands are not available for this player in the current data run. His bye is Week 10.
Is Bo Nix undervalued or overvalued by AI rankings?
Current PPR ADP is 111.8, around pick 10.04. Nova is higher than the draft room by about 36 picks.
What does NovaPredict project for Bo Nix in PPR leagues?
Nova's PPR view for Bo Nix is 315 season points at 19.23 points per game. His PPR VORP is 16.5, which is the value Nova sees above replacement at QB.
How risky is Bo Nix based on AI probability bands and DNA grade?
His DNA grade is B, based on 34 logged games, so the AI view treats his week-to-week volatility as baseline. Full probability bands are not available for this player in the current data run.
Should I draft Bo Nix at current ADP?
At ADP 111.8, Bo Nix is priced as a QB on the Denver Broncos. Nova is higher than the draft room by about 36 picks. Schedule context: early SOS is 11.8 and playoff SOS is 10.3 on Nova's 1-32 scale.
What team context affects Bo Nix's 2026 fantasy outlook?
Bo Nix is listed with the Denver Broncos as a QB. The 2025 usage profile includes 17 games and a 100% snap share, plus a 0% target share and a 18% carry share. Team context matters because nearby Denver Broncos fantasy pieces on this board include Courtland Sutton, Evan Engram, J.K. Dobbins.
What market or injury context should I know for Bo Nix?
Tracked market lines are loaded for 2 season stats, so Nova can compare its stat projection against the market. Profile note: Nova has Bo Nix, 80th overall, QB, DEN, Tier 7, 16.5 VORP, 315.4 projected PPR points, 19.2 PPR points per game.