Bo Nix

QBDEN· bye 10· Nova #70 · T7DNA B

15.2

VORP

117.4

ADP

18.62

PPR / game

Nova overview

Bo Nix is Nova's 70th-ranked player overall (QB, DEN), in Tier 7. Nova projects roughly 305 points this season, about 18.62 per game.

He is a value: the market drafts him around pick 117, well behind Nova's 70, so he tends to return more than his cost.

Nova gives him about a 30% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 106 points (floor) to 506 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades B (Baseline). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks tough.

Usage & opportunity2025 · 17 games

Snap share100%

Target share0%

Carry share18%

Air-yards share0%

Catch rate0%

WOPR (opportunity)0.003

Red-zone opps (5 TD)18

11.8

Early SOS (wk 1-4)

10.3 tough

Playoff SOS (wk 15-17)

Bye week

Season budget pace

full board →

+34%AheadSell high

99.1 of 305.7 banked · 4wrevised 356.7

+34% ahead of pace, some regression likely, a sell-high window.

Per-game points distribution

13%

Bust <10 pts

44%

Solid 10–20 pts

43%

Boom >20 pts

Not one number. The probability of every weekly outcome, from the player’s real week-to-week range across 34 games.

Season outcome range

floor 106 ptmed 305 ptceil 506 pt

30%

P(tier-1)

50%

P(tier-2+)

QB5-QB25

likely finish

Report card

Upside · P(tier-1)30%

Opportunity · snaps100%

Rank edge vs market+51

Nova rank by format

Format	Nova Rank	Tier	VORP	P(Tier-1)	Finish range	Total P10-P90
PPR	70	T7	15.2	30%	QB5-QB25	106.1-506.2
Half PPR	68	T8	15.3	30%	QB5-QB25	106.1-505.8
Standard	68	T9	16.4	30%	QB5-QB25	106-505.5
2QB / Superflex	41	T7	46.2	30%	QB5-QB25	106.1-506.2

Nova season stat lines16.5 expected games

Stat	Nova projection
Rushing Yards	377
Rushing TDs	4.5
Passing Yards	3847.2
Passing TDs	26.2

2025 usage profile17 games

100%

snap share

4.9

carries / game

18%

team carry share

4.3

yards / carry

red-zone opportunities (5 TDs)

+2.8

TD equity (over pace, regression risk)

+6.6

TD pace vs position (30 total)

PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season

broken tackles forced

17.3

rush yards before contact / g

3.6

rush yards after contact / g

drops

drop rate

39.6

passer rating when targeted

128

times pressured

18.9%

pressure rate faced

115

times blitzed

times sacked

times hurried

times hit

16.3%

bad throw rate

No season futures captured for this player yet. The market board rotates and coverage grows Mon/Wed/Fri.

2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats

Week	Opp	Stat line	PPR
W1	DEN vs TEN	176-1-2 pass, 8-18-0 rush	6.8
W2	DEN vs IND	206-3-1 pass, 3-20-0 rush	20.2
W3	DEN vs LAC	153-1-0 pass, 8-33-0 rush	13.4
W4	DEN vs CIN	326-2-1 pass, 6-7-1 rush	25.7
W5	DEN vs PHI	242-1-0 pass, 3-22-0 rush	17.9
W6	DEN vs NYJ	174-1-0 pass, 5-24-0 rush	13.4
W7	DEN vs NYG	279-2-0 pass, 5-48-2 rush	40.0
W8	DEN vs DAL	247-4-1 pass, 1--1-0 rush	23.8
W9	DEN vs HOU	173-2-1 pass, 3-36-0 rush	18.5
W10	DEN vs LV	150-1-2 pass, 5--2-0 rush	5.8
W11	DEN vs KC	295-0-0 pass, 3-8-0 rush	12.6
W13	DEN vs WAS	321-1-1 pass, 2-16-0 rush	16.4
W14	DEN vs LV	212-0-0 pass, 3-15-1 rush	16.0
W15	DEN vs GB	302-4-0 pass, 7-10-0 rush	29.1
W16	DEN vs JAX	352-1-1 pass, 4-11-0 rush	15.2
W17	DEN vs KC	182-1-1 pass, 9-42-1 rush	19.5
W18	DEN vs LAC	141-0-0 pass, 8-49-0 rush	10.5