Armchair QB
The research bench. Plot any metric against any other and see the correlation, build a custom table of exactly the columns you care about, or rank the field by anything. Every projection, market number, volatility grade, usage rate, and red-zone figure we hold, in one explorer.
ℹFormat-dependent numbers (ADP, VORP, ranks, bands) use PPR here. Usage, snap share, air yards, and red-zone figures are 2025 actuals; projections are Nova’s 2026 model. All from free data.
What do these terms mean?
VORP ★
Value Over Replacement Player: projected points above a freely-available replacement at the same position. Nova's core measure of real value.
Nova Rk ★
Nova's own ranking by VORP, independent of ADP and the experts. The core opinion.
Nova Budget ★
Nova's projected full-season fantasy points, adjusted for how many games we expect the player to play.
Tier-1 % ★
Nova's modeled probability he finishes as a tier-1 (elite) player at his position, from 5000 simulated seasons.
DNA ★
Week-to-week volatility grade from 3 seasons of game logs, graded against position peers so low scorers are not punished. The scale, steadiest to swingiest: S+ elite consistency, S consistent, B baseline, V variable, H high variance, X extreme boom/bust.
ADP
Average Draft Position: the average overall pick he is drafted at, from real drafts. The market's price on a player.
ECR
Expert Consensus Ranking: the fantasy industry's average expert rank (FantasyPros). The consensus, not Nova.
Target share
The share of his team's pass targets that went to him. Volume is the biggest driver of receiving points.
WOPR
Weighted Opportunity Rating: a blend of target share and air-yards share into one opportunity number. Higher means a bigger role in the passing game.
RACR
Receiver Air Conversion Ratio: receiving yards divided by air yards, i.e. how efficiently he turns targets into yards.
Air yards share
His share of the team's total air yards (how far the ball travels on his targets). Signals downfield, high-value usage.
Snap share
The share of his team's offensive snaps he was on the field for. A base measure of role.
Carry share
His share of the team's running back carries. Bell-cow backs sit near the top.
Catch rate
Catches divided by targets: how often a target becomes a reception.
Red-zone touches
Targets plus carries inside the opponent's 20-yard line, where touchdowns are scored. A key scoring-opportunity signal.
TD equity
Actual touchdowns minus the touchdowns his red-zone volume would typically produce. Positive suggests he ran hot and may regress down, negative suggests positive regression coming.
Early SOS
Strength of schedule over the early season (weeks 1-6).
Playoff SOS
Strength of schedule in the fantasy playoffs (weeks 15-17), which matters most for a title run.
★ = Nova’s own model, the secret sauce. The rest are the market reference and raw stats Nova is measured against.
correlation r = -0.05weak / none · 142 players