Values & Reaches
Every player the market and Nova disagree on most. A big positive gap means Nova’s VORP rank is far ahead of where the room is drafting the player (a possible sleeper). A big negative gap means Nova has the player well behind the market (a possible reach).
ℹThe gap compares current market ADP to Nova’s preseason projection ranking. A big gap is a disagreement to investigate, not an automatic edge, the market prices in things Nova’s model does not see.
What do these terms mean?
Value (gap) ★
ADP minus Nova's rank. A big positive gap means Nova likes him more than the market (a value); negative means the market likes him more (a reach).
ADP
Average Draft Position: the average overall pick he is drafted at, from real drafts. The market's price on a player.
Nova Rk ★
Nova's own ranking by VORP, independent of ADP and the experts. The core opinion.
VORP ★
Value Over Replacement Player: projected points above a freely-available replacement at the same position. Nova's core measure of real value.
Tier ★
Nova's value tier at the position. A tier break marks a real cliff in value, so Tier 1 is the top group, Tier 2 the next, and so on.
★ = Nova’s own model, the secret sauce. The rest are the market reference and raw stats Nova is measured against.
ADP source: FantasyFootballCalculator ADP (free, real drafts) + Nova projections for the full player universe · 1619 drafts · window 2026-07-05 → 2026-07-12 · generated 2026-07-12 · 12-team leagues · 17 players shown · startable players (starter or flex) Nova ranks a couple rounds ahead of their ADP
| # | Player | Pos | ADP | Nova Rk | VORP | Tier | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alvin Kamara | RB | 154.0 | 89 | 1 | T7 | +84 |
| 2 | Oronde Gadsden | TE | 160.5 | 103 | -3 | T7 | +84 |
| 3 | George Kittle | TE | 106.9 | 50 | 32 | T7 | +63 |
| 4 | Jalen Hurts | QB | 94.6 | 43 | 40 | T7 | +53 |
| 5 | Bo Nix | QB | 117.4 | 70 | 15 | T7 | +51 |
| 6 | Caleb Williams | QB | 109.0 | 72 | 14 | T7 | +44 |
| 7 | Dalton Kincaid | TE | 132.4 | 94 | 0 | T7 | +44 |
| 8 | Jake Ferguson | TE | 117.3 | 79 | 7 | T7 | +41 |
| 9 | Dallas Goedert | TE | 121.7 | 86 | 4 | T7 | +41 |
| 10 | Travis Kelce | TE | 97.4 | 62 | 20 | T7 | +37 |
| 11 | Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | 83.5 | 54 | 30 | T7 | +31 |
| 12 | Harold Fannin Jr. | TE | 67.8 | 39 | 43 | T7 | +30 |
| 13 | Drake Maye | QB | 65.3 | 37 | 48 | T7 | +29 |
| 14 | Baker Mayfield | QB | 127.3 | 100 | -2 | T7 | +29 |
| 15 | Brock Bowers | TE | 35.8 | 12 | 108 | T3 | +26 |
| 16 | Kyle Pitts Sr. | TE | 86.6 | 64 | 20 | T7 | +25 |
| 17 | Mark Andrews | TE | 131.2 | 111 | -9 | T7 | +24 |