Floor / Ceiling Archetypes

Every player’s season projection is really a distribution, not a single number. This board sorts by the shape of that distribution instead of the middle of it: who’s the safest floor, who has the real ceiling, and who’s the true boom/bust swing.

What do these terms mean?

Floor (P10) ★

A low-end season outcome: only about 10 percent of simulated seasons finish below this. The safe-case number.

Ceiling (P90) ★

A high-end season outcome: only about 10 percent of simulated seasons finish above this. The upside number.

Spread ★

Ceiling minus floor. A wide spread means a boom-or-bust player, a narrow one means a steady player.

Boom / Bust ★

How wide the range of likely outcomes is. Boom = big-upside weeks, bust = weeks that sink you.

Tier-1 % ★

Nova's modeled probability he finishes as a tier-1 (elite) player at his position, from 5000 simulated seasons.

DNA ★

Week-to-week volatility grade from 3 seasons of game logs, graded against position peers so low scorers are not punished. The scale, steadiest to swingiest: S+ elite consistency, S consistent, B baseline, V variable, H high variance, X extreme boom/bust.

CoV

Coefficient of variation (weekly standard deviation divided by mean). Lower means steadier week to week, higher means more volatile.

★ = Nova’s own model, the secret sauce. The rest are the market reference and raw stats Nova is measured against.

⚠Bands are backtest-calibrated probability ranges, not guarantees. Roughly 80% of simulated outcomes land between the P10 (floor) and P90 (ceiling) shown here (coverage-calibrated: the 80% band hit 83.2% in the 2024 out-of-sample test). Only players with a simulated PPR band qualify for this board (434 of 970 players this format).

Sorted by P10 season total (worst-case-ish outcome), highest first. The safe, consistent picks. · 40 players shown

Player	Pos	Floor (P10)	Ceiling (P90)	Spread	Tier-1 %	DNA
Josh AllenBUF	QB	123	588	465	41%	X
Ja'Marr ChaseCIN	WR	116	550	434	49%	X
Puka NacuaLA	WR	115	518	403	47%	B
Amon-Ra St. BrownDET	WR	110	518	408	47%	B
Jalen HurtsPHI	QB	110	526	416	33%	B
Bo NixDEN	QB	106	506	400	30%	B
Lamar JacksonBAL	QB	103	489	386	28%	V
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA	WR	100	480	380	40%	B
Drake MayeNE	QB	99	503	404	30%	S
Caleb WilliamsCHI	QB	97	484	386	27%	V
Patrick MahomesKC	QB	97	456	359	25%	S+
Trevor LawrenceJAX	QB	97	461	364	24%	B
Jared GoffDET	QB	97	475	378	25%	B
Baker MayfieldTB	QB	97	481	384	26%	S
Trey McBrideARI	TE	96	411	315	51%	V
Justin HerbertLAC	QB	94	446	353	23%	B
CeeDee LambDAL	WR	91	428	337	33%	B
Jahmyr GibbsDET	RB	90	672	582	53%	H
George PickensDAL	WR	88	405	317	30%	V
Dak PrescottDAL	QB	88	412	323	18%	V
Matthew StaffordLA	QB	88	415	327	18%	S
Bijan RobinsonATL	RB	87	650	563	53%	B
Brock PurdySF	QB	87	426	339	20%	V
Jaxson DartNYG	QB	86	431	345	20%	ROOKIE/NA
Brock BowersLV	TE	86	357	271	40%	V
Jordan LoveGB	QB	85	421	336	19%	S
Jayden DanielsWAS	QB	83	386	303	14%	V
Drake LondonATL	WR	83	376	293	27%	H
Justin JeffersonMIN	WR	82	381	298	27%	B
Joe BurrowCIN	QB	81	374	294	13%	H
Nico CollinsHOU	WR	81	370	289	25%	B
C.J. StroudHOU	QB	80	402	321	17%	B
Zay FlowersBAL	WR	80	380	301	25%	B
Tetairoa McMillanCAR	WR	78	362	284	24%	S
Sam DarnoldSEA	QB	78	376	299	13%	X
Davante AdamsLA	WR	77	352	274	22%	V
A.J. BrownNE	WR	77	360	283	23%	B
De'Von AchaneMIA	RB	76	572	496	45%	H
Ladd McConkeyLAC	WR	75	346	270	20%	S
Chris OlaveNO	WR	75	347	272	21%	S