2026 Preseason Board

The rankings, triangulated

The board starts from what is real today: live ADP from actual drafts, per scoring format, with positional ranks and draft ranges. The triangulation columns (Vegas Season Budget, Nova Budget, Divergence, hit probabilities) switch on as each engine passes validation, and never before.

FoundersFull ranges, boom/bust and DNA are Pro. Free shows the whole board; Founders unlock floor/median/ceiling for $29.

Lock in $29 →

⚠Nova Budget is live, it shipped after beating the ADP market baseline in 2023 and 2024 out-of-sample backtests (hover any value for the record). Divergence is live too, scored from Nova vs the Vegas season-props market (hover any value for coverage). Vegas Budget stays engine pending until the season-props capture completes. No placeholder numbers, ever.

What do these columns mean? (or hover any column header)

Overall board rank by current ADP (where the market is drafting him).

Player

The player. Click his name for the full player page.

Pos

Position: QB, RB, WR, or TE.

Pos Rank

Rank within his position by ADP (for example WR5).

Bye

His bye week, the week his NFL team does not play.

ADP

Average Draft Position: the average overall pick he is drafted at, from real drafts. The market's price.

Pick

ADP shown as round.pick (3.05 = round 3, pick 5).

Range

The earliest and latest picks he has actually gone at: his draft-day range.

Standard deviation of his draft spot. Higher means more disagreement on where he belongs.

Drafts

How many real drafts his ADP is based on. More drafts, more reliable.

DNA ★

Week-to-week volatility grade from 3 seasons of game logs, vs position peers. Steadiest to swingiest: S+ elite consistency, S consistent, B baseline, V variable, H high variance, X extreme boom/bust. Hover a grade for that player's detail.

ECR

Expert Consensus Ranking: the fantasy industry's average expert rank (FantasyPros). This is the consensus, not Nova.

Nova Rk ★

Nova's OWN ranking by VORP (value over replacement). The secret sauce: Nova's opinion, independent of ADP and the experts.

Nova Budget ★

Nova's projected full-season fantasy points, adjusted for how many games we expect the player to play.

Tier-1 % ★

Nova's modeled probability he finishes as a tier-1 (elite) player at his position, from 5000 simulated seasons.

Playoff SOS ★

Strength of schedule in the fantasy playoffs (weeks 15-17), from 2025 points allowed to the position. Higher = easier.

Vegas Budget

Coming soon: the season points the Vegas props market implies. Pending the season-props capture.

Divergence ★

Nova's disagreement with the market on a plus/minus 100 scale. Positive = Nova is higher than Vegas and the experts, negative = lower. This is where the edge lives.

★ = Nova’s own model, the secret sauce. The rest are the market reference (ADP, experts, draft spread) that Nova is measured against.

ADP source: FantasyFootballCalculator ADP (free, real drafts) + Nova projections for the full player universe · 1619 drafts · window 2026-07-05 → 2026-07-12 · generated 2026-07-12 · 12-team leagues · 969 players shown

Tip: sort by to group players into tiers (ADP order scatters them).

Rank	Player	Tier	Pos Rk	VORP	ADP▲	Outcome	DNA	Diverg.
4	Bijan RobinsonRBATL · bye 11	T1	RB1	151	1.6		B	+4.2
2	Jahmyr GibbsRBDET · bye 6	T1	RB2	156	2.0		H	+1.5
1	Puka NacuaWRLA · bye 11	T1	WR1	157	2.8		B	+7.9
3	Ja'Marr ChaseWRCIN · bye 6	T1	WR2	152	4.0		X	-0.2
5	Christian McCaffreyRBSF · bye 8	T2	RB3	135	4.8		B	-9.2
7	Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWRSEA · bye 11	T3	WR3	123	6.0		B	-9.6
6	Amon-Ra St. BrownWRDET · bye 6	T2	WR4	135	7.6		B	+11.7
10	Jonathan TaylorRBIND · bye 13	T3	RB4	112	7.6		H	n/a
8	De'Von AchaneRBMIA · bye 6	T3	RB5	114	9.0		H	n/a
20	Justin JeffersonWRMIN · bye 6	T4	WR5	83	10.0		B	-18.3
11	CeeDee LambWRDAL · bye 14	T3	WR6	112	10.7		B	-19.3
18	Ashton JeantyRBLV · bye 13	T4	RB6	86	12.4		V	n/a
16	Drake LondonWRATL · bye 11	T4	WR7	88	12.6		H	-16.3
13	James Cook IIIRBBUF · bye 7	T4	RB7	93	13.9		B	n/a
22	A.J. BrownWRNE · bye 11	T5	WR8	77	14.2		B	n/a
15	Derrick HenryRBBAL · bye 13	T4	RB8	91	15.2		V	n/a
27	Chase BrownRBCIN · bye 6	T6	RB9	62	15.8		H	n/a
35	Omarion HamptonRBLAC · bye 7	T7	RB10	52	17.2		ROOKIE/NA	n/a
19	George PickensWRDAL · bye 14	T4	WR9	86	17.5		V	+13.2
21	Saquon BarkleyRBPHI · bye 10	T4	RB11	83	19.7		V	n/a
25	Chris OlaveWRNO · bye 8	T5	WR10	73	21.2		S	-6.7
24	Jeremiyah LoveRBARI · bye 14	T5	RB12	76	22.3		ROOKIE/NA	n/a
40	Kenneth Walker IIIRBKC · bye 5	T7	RB13	43	22.7		B	n/a
17	Nico CollinsWRHOU · bye 8	T4	WR11	88	23.3		B	-0.8
31	Zay FlowersWRBAL · bye 13	T7	WR12	55	25.7		B	-2.5
46	Garrett WilsonWRNYJ · bye 13	T7	WR13	38	26.4		S	-18.8
28	Tee HigginsWRCIN · bye 6	T7	WR14	57	26.4		H	-0.8
34	Rashee RiceWRKC · bye 5	T7	WR15	53	27.1		S	n/a
29	Josh JacobsRBGB · bye 11	T7	RB14	56	28.6		B	n/a
44	DeVonta SmithWRPHI · bye 10	T7	WR16	39	28.7		B	-15.8
14	Josh AllenQBBUF · bye 7	T4	QB1	91	28.8		X	n/a
9	Trey McBrideTEARI · bye 14	T3	TE1	114	29.3		V	+8.3
32	Breece HallRBNYJ · bye 13	T7	RB15	53	30.2		H	n/a
23	Kyren WilliamsRBLA · bye 11	T5	RB16	77	32.8		S	n/a
30	Tetairoa McMillanWRCAR · bye 5	T7	WR17	55	33.1		S	+9.3
41	Ladd McConkeyWRLAC · bye 7	T7	WR18	42	35.5		S	+15.1
49	Javonte WilliamsRBDAL · bye 14	T7	RB17	33	35.6		S	n/a
12	Brock BowersTELV · bye 13	T3	TE2	108	35.8		V	-2.9
57	Terry McLaurinWRWAS · bye 7	T7	WR19	26	36.8		S+	-19.8
51	Travis Etienne Jr.RBNO · bye 8	T7	RB18	32	38.2		B	n/a
53	Cam SkatteboRBNYG · bye 8	T7	RB19	31	38.2		ROOKIE/NA	n/a
33	Davante AdamsWRLA · bye 11	T7	WR20	53	39.8		V	+7.8
61	Jaylen WaddleWRDEN · bye 10	T7	WR21	20	42.5		S	n/a
26	Malik NabersWRNYG · bye 8	T5	WR22	70	43.4		V	n/a
38	Colston LovelandTECHI · bye 10	T7	TE3	45	44.5		X	+0.7
99	Luther Burden IIIWRCHI · bye 10	T7	WR23	-2	45.1		ROOKIE/NA	n/a
48	Emeka EgbukaWRTB · bye 10	T7	WR24	36	45.9		H	-3.3
47	Jameson WilliamsWRDET · bye 6	T7	WR25	37	46.8		V	+5.3
69	Joe BurrowQBCIN · bye 6	T7	QB2	15	47.0		H	n/a
45	Bucky IrvingRBTB · bye 10	T7	RB20	38	47.1		S	n/a
58	D'Andre SwiftRBCHI · bye 10	T7	RB21	26	48.7		S	n/a
52	Mike EvansWRSF · bye 8	T7	WR26	31	51.0		B	n/a
60	Quinshon JudkinsRBCLE · bye 11	T7	RB22	22	51.8		ROOKIE/NA	n/a
78	Rome OdunzeWRCHI · bye 10	T7	WR27	9	54.5		V	-10.3
36	Lamar JacksonQBBAL · bye 13	T7	QB3	50	54.7		V	n/a
42	Tyler WarrenTEIND · bye 13	T7	TE4	41	55.4		S+	-6.3
65	DK MetcalfWRPIT · bye 9	T7	WR28	19	56.0		S+	+5.6
77	David MontgomeryRBHOU · bye 8	T7	RB23	9	56.6		S	n/a
92	Alec PierceWRIND · bye 13	T7	WR29	1	59.4		H	n/a
56	TreVeyon HendersonRBNE · bye 11	T7	RB24	28	59.6		X	n/a
96	Christian WatsonWRGB · bye 11	T7	WR30	0	60.4		V	-32.0
108	Dak PrescottQBDAL · bye 14	T7	QB4	-8	60.7		V	n/a
160	Bhayshul TutenRBJAX · bye 7	T7	RB25	-38	61.6		ROOKIE/NA	n/a
68	Carnell TateWRTEN · bye 9	T7	WR31	15	63.4		ROOKIE/NA	n/a
75	Marvin Harrison Jr.WRARI · bye 14	T7	WR32	11	65.1		B	-5.5
37	Drake MayeQBNE · bye 11	T7	QB5	48	65.3		S	n/a
87	Jaylen WarrenRBPIT · bye 9	T7	RB26	4	65.9		S+	n/a
59	DJ MooreWRBUF · bye 7	T7	WR33	23	66.4		H	n/a
39	Harold Fannin Jr.TECLE · bye 11	T7	TE5	43	67.8		S+	n/a
55	Sam LaPortaTEDET · bye 6	T7	TE6	30	70.2		S	+25.1
84	Michael Pittman Jr.WRPIT · bye 9	T7	WR34	6	70.8		S	n/a
91	Rhamondre StevensonRBNE · bye 11	T7	RB27	1	70.9		H	n/a
67	Tucker KraftTEGB · bye 11	T7	TE7	17	71.5		H	n/a
83	Tony PollardRBTEN · bye 9	T7	RB28	6	72.4		S+	n/a
124	Parker WashingtonWRJAX · bye 7	T7	WR35	-16	73.2		H	n/a
63	Courtland SuttonWRDEN · bye 10	T7	WR36	20	74.1		S+	+9.3
85	Patrick MahomesQBKC · bye 5	T7	QB6	5	74.9		S+	n/a
82	Justin HerbertQBLAC · bye 7	T7	QB7	6	75.0		B	n/a
127	Jadarian PriceRBSEA · bye 11	T7	RB29	-17	75.2		ROOKIE/NA	n/a
114	Chris Godwin Jr.WRTB · bye 10	T7	WR37	-11	78.3		B	n/a
98	Rico DowdleRBPIT · bye 9	T7	RB30	-1	78.7		H	n/a
102	Chuba HubbardRBCAR · bye 5	T7	RB31	-3	79.5		V	n/a
88	Michael WilsonWRARI · bye 14	T7	WR38	2	81.0		H	n/a
66	Trevor LawrenceQBJAX · bye 7	T7	QB8	17	82.5		B	n/a
54	Brian Thomas Jr.WRJAX · bye 7	T7	WR39	30	83.5		B	+27.1
110	Jordyn TysonWRNO · bye 8	T7	WR40	-8	84.3		ROOKIE/NA	n/a
104	Jayden ReedWRGB · bye 11	T7	WR41	-3	84.5		B	n/a
116	Josh DownsWRIND · bye 13	T7	WR42	-11	85.4		S	n/a
64	Kyle Pitts Sr.TEATL · bye 11	T7	TE8	20	86.6		X	n/a
74	Jayden DanielsQBWAS · bye 7	T7	QB9	12	87.2		V	n/a
76	Wan'Dale RobinsonWRTEN · bye 9	T7	WR43	10	88.5		S	n/a
71	RJ HarveyRBDEN · bye 10	T7	RB32	15	89.2		V	n/a
95	Jared GoffQBDET · bye 6	T7	QB10	0	91.2		B	n/a
73	Jordan AddisonWRMIN · bye 6	T7	WR44	14	92.1		V	n/a
107	Aaron Jones Sr.RBMIN · bye 6	T7	RB33	-6	94.1		S	n/a
43	Jalen HurtsQBPHI · bye 10	T7	QB11	40	94.6		B	n/a
109	J.K. DobbinsRBDEN · bye 10	T7	RB34	-8	94.8		S+	n/a
98	Seattle DefenseDEFSEA · bye 11	n/a	DEF1	n/a	95.2	n/a	ROOKIE/NA	n/a
62	Travis KelceTEKC · bye 5	T7	TE9	20	97.4		B	n/a
118	Xavier WorthyWRKC · bye 5	T7	WR45	-12	98.2		B	n/a
80	Jakobi MeyersWRJAX · bye 7	T7	WR46	7	98.5		S+	n/a
90	Quentin JohnstonWRLAC · bye 7	T7	WR47	1	100.3		V	n/a
120	Khalil ShakirWRBUF · bye 7	T7	WR48	-13	100.5		S	n/a
81	Brock PurdyQBSF · bye 8	T7	QB12	6	100.9		V	n/a
122	Romeo DoubsWRNE · bye 11	T7	WR49	-14	101.1		S	n/a
106	Kenny GainwellRBTB · bye 10	n/a	RB35	n/a	101.1	n/a	ROOKIE/NA	n/a
107	Denver DefenseDEFDEN · bye 10	n/a	DEF2	n/a	102.4	n/a	ROOKIE/NA	n/a
143	Ricky PearsallWRSF · bye 8	T7	WR50	-28	102.7		X	n/a
106	Rachaad WhiteRBWAS · bye 7	T7	RB36	-6	102.9		B	n/a
126	Matthew StaffordQBLA · bye 11	T7	QB13	-17	103.3		S	n/a
131	Kyle MonangaiRBCHI · bye 10	T7	RB37	-19	105.7		B	n/a
112	LA Rams DefenseDEFLA · bye 11	n/a	DEF3	n/a	106.6	n/a	ROOKIE/NA	n/a
50	George KittleTESF · bye 8	T7	TE10	32	106.9		B	+17.9
114	Houston DefenseDEFHOU · bye 8	n/a	DEF4	n/a	107.4	n/a	ROOKIE/NA	n/a
151	Makai LemonWRPHI · bye 10	T7	WR51	-33	107.6		ROOKIE/NA	n/a
72	Caleb WilliamsQBCHI · bye 10	T7	QB14	14	109.0		V	n/a
209	Matthew GoldenWRGB · bye 11	T7	WR52	-64	112.4		ROOKIE/NA	n/a
163	Jalen CokerWRCAR · bye 5	T7	WR53	-39	113.8		B	n/a
101	Jaxson DartQBNYG · bye 8	T7	QB15	-3	115.3		ROOKIE/NA	n/a
79	Jake FergusonTEDAL · bye 14	T7	TE11	7	117.3		B	+10.3

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