Mac Jones
QBSF· bye 8· Nova #265 · T7DNA V
-80
VORP
10.96
PPR / game
Nova overview
Mac Jones is Nova's 265th-ranked player overall (QB, SF), in Tier 7. Nova projects roughly 155 points this season, about 10.96 per game.
There is no market ADP on him yet, so this is Nova's read alone.
Nova gives him about a 2% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 51 points (floor) to 246 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades V (Variable). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks tough.
17
Early SOS (wk 1-4)
8.3 tough
Playoff SOS (wk 15-17)
8
Bye week
Season budget pace
full board →+13%Ahead
50.8 of 135.6 banked · 4wrevised 145.6
+13% ahead of pace, some regression likely.
Per-game points distribution
40%
Bust <10 pts
45%
Solid 10–20 pts
14%
Boom >20 pts
Not one number. The probability of every weekly outcome, from the player’s real week-to-week range across 32 games.
Season outcome range
floor 51 ptmed 155 ptceil 246 pt
2%
P(tier-1)
8%
P(tier-2+)
QB23-QB55
likely finish
Report card
Upside · P(tier-1)2%
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 265 | T7 | -80 | 2% | QB23-QB55 | 51-245.6 |
| Half PPR | 269 | T8 | -72.3 | 2% | QB23-QB55 | 51-245.6 |
| Standard | 285 | T9 | -64.2 | 2% | QB23-QB55 | 51-245.6 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 190 | T7 | -49 | 2% | QB23-QB55 | 51-245.6 |