Luther Burden III
WRCHI· bye 10· Nova #99 · T7ROOKIE/NA
-2.1
VORP
45.1
ADP
9.06
PPR / game
Nova overview
Luther Burden III is Nova's 99th-ranked player overall (WR, CHI), in Tier 7. Nova projects roughly 139 points this season, about 9.06 per game.
He is a reach by Nova's math: the market takes him around pick 45, ahead of Nova's 99.
Nova gives him about a 6% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 50 points (floor) to 234 (ceiling). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks average.
Usage & opportunity2025 · 15 games
Snap share40%
Target share13%
Carry share1%
Air-yards share11%
Catch rate78%
WOPR (opportunity)0.271
Red-zone opps (0 TD)4
11.8
Early SOS (wk 1-4)
17
Playoff SOS (wk 15-17)
10
Bye week
Season budget pace
full board →-32%BehindBuy low
24.4 of 135.7 banked · 4wrevised 113.8
-32% behind pace, a bounce-back candidate if the role holds, a buy-low window.
Season outcome range
floor 50 ptmed 139 ptceil 234 pt
6%
P(tier-1)
16%
P(tier-2+)
WR35-WR95
likely finish
Report card
Upside · P(tier-1)6%
Opportunity · snaps40%
Rank edge vs market-53
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 99 | T7 | -2.1 | 6% | WR35-WR95 | 50.1-233.5 |
| Half PPR | 97 | T8 | -1 | 6% | WR35-WR95 | 40.9-190.7 |
| Standard | 86 | T9 | 3.9 | 6% | WR36-WR96 | 31.7-147.9 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 108 | T7 | -2.7 | 6% | WR35-WR95 | 50.1-233.5 |
Nova season stat lines15.2 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 685.2 |
| Receptions | 49.8 |
| Receiving TDs | 2.3 |
| Rushing Yards | 37.5 |
2025 usage profile15 games
40%
snap share
4
targets / game
13%
team target share
11%
air yards share
0.271
WOPR (opportunity)
3.1
receptions / game
78%
catch rate
10.9
yards / target
30.7
air yards / game
0.4
carries / game
1%
team carry share
6.2
yards / carry
4
red-zone opportunities (0 TDs)
-0.8
TD equity (under pace, due)
-0.9
TD pace vs position (2 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
2
broken tackles forced
4.5
rush yards before contact / g
1.7
rush yards after contact / g
4
drops
4.7%
drop rate
100.2
passer rating when targeted
No season futures captured for this player yet. The market board rotates and coverage grows Mon/Wed/Fri.
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | CHI vs MIN | 1--3-0 (1 tgt) | 0.7 |
| W2 | CHI vs DET | 1-5-0 (2 tgt) | 1.5 |
| W3 | CHI vs DAL | 3-101-1 (3 tgt), 1-7 rush | 19.8 |
| W4 | CHI vs LV | 2--4-0 (2 tgt) | 1.6 |
| W6 | CHI vs WAS | 4-51-0 (4 tgt) | 9.1 |
| W7 | CHI vs NO | 1-22-0 (2 tgt), 1--1 rush | 3.1 |
| W8 | CHI vs BAL | 1--1-0 (1 tgt) | 0.9 |
| W10 | CHI vs NYG | 3-51-0 (3 tgt) | 8.1 |
| W11 | CHI vs MIN | 3-27-0 (5 tgt) | 5.7 |
| W12 | CHI vs PIT | 3-46-0 (5 tgt), 1-15 rush | 9.1 |
| W13 | CHI vs PHI | 4-33-0 (6 tgt), 1-3 rush | 7.6 |
| W14 | CHI vs GB | 4-67-0 (6 tgt), 1-3 rush | 11.0 |
| W15 | CHI vs CLE | 6-84-0 (7 tgt) | 14.4 |
| W17 | CHI vs SF | 8-138-1 (9 tgt) | 27.8 |
| W18 | CHI vs DET | 3-35-0 (4 tgt), 1-10 rush | 7.5 |