Cole Kmet

Where He's Expected to Land

Nova's Budget projects roughly 108 points across the season, about 6.83 PPG, TE18-42 range depending on format. That's a streaming-caliber floor with almost no ceiling attached: only 6% odds of a tier-1 season and 15% of even cracking tier-2. The per-game distribution is brutal for a rostered NFL starter, 62% bust weeks (under 10 PPR points), 35% solid, and just 2% boom. Kmet also draws a tough early-season slate (11) and an even tougher fantasy-playoff stretch (9.7, weeks 15-17), with a Week 10 bye. None of that screams "draftable."

One data flag worth naming: the live Nova page shows an in-season budget-pace readout ("+22% ahead, 33.5 of 108.3 banked · 4w") that implies four weeks of 2026 results already exist. It's July 11, the season hasn't kicked off. That figure looks like a stale or template carryover, and it shouldn't be read as real 2026 game data. Treat the rank, tier, VORP, and distribution numbers as the current signal; treat the pace tracker as uncalibrated until it resets.

The Last Three Seasons

*2024-25 PPG estimated from box-score counting stats (rec + yds/10 + 6/TD); 2023's TE7-8 PPR finish is sourced (FantasyData, draftpunk.net).

That's not a plateau, it's a slide, targets, catches, and yards have fallen every year since his 2023 peak, and the drop from 2024 to 2025 (474 yards to 347) lines up exactly with the arrival of a much more talked-about target in the same room. Kmet didn't get hurt and didn't lose snaps to a scheme change; he got out-competed for touches.

What Changed for Him This Offseason

Nothing changed about Kmet individually, same team, same $50 million second contract (four years, signed in 2023, two years left), no injury, no camp battle for a job title. What changed is the noise around him: NFL.com's Matt Okada included him on a roster-cut-candidates list in February; by April, Yahoo Sports was floating a Bears-Ravens trade proposal built around moving him out of Chicago; by May, ESPN was simulating a Chiefs trade offer for him as a long-term Travis Kelce succession play; by June, a Bears insider was naming three "surprising" trade destinations; and as recently as July 10, Yahoo Sports/FanSided ran realistic trade packages for the Chiefs, Broncos, and Panthers, while Da Windy City argued the same week that the Bears "must capitalize on Cole Kmet's trade value before it's too late." He has been rumored out the door for five straight months and is still, as of publication, on the roster.

What Changed Around Him

The real story is Colston Loveland. The Bears took the Michigan tight end 10th overall in the 2025 draft, and he immediately became the more featured player, 58 catches, 713 yards, 6 touchdowns as a rookie, easily outproducing Kmet in the same offense. Ben Johnson enters year two as Bears head coach with Caleb Williams, and the expectation around the building is heavy 12-personnel (two tight ends on the field together) usage rather than a straight benching of either player. Bears Wire ranked Kmet the 24th most important Bear for 2026 on July 5, 2026, writing that he'll "once again play a key role in Ben Johnson's offense", important, but clearly the second name in the room now, not the first.

What They're Saying

The strongest signal isn't a beat writer, it's a front office. "He's still a quality player who's friendly for a young quarterback, good in the run game," an anonymous personnel executive told ESPN's Jeremy Fowler, as relayed by Matt Sullivan of The Sporting News on July 10, 2026. "They need to find ways to get Kmet and Loveland on the field together." That's a real NFL evaluator pushing back on the idea that Kmet is a throw-in, but even Sullivan's own framing concedes the point: "It's not like the Bears are going to listen to this executive's wish," and Kmet is described in the same piece as "the backup Bears TE." The chatter reconciles cleanly with Nova's number: a respected role player who is no longer the plan.

The Buzz

Fantasy circles have mostly stopped talking about Kmet as a startable option and started talking about him as trade ballast for someone else's roster. A to Z Sports noted this month that "Bears TE duo turned heads across the NFL" in the latest positional rankings, Loveland and Kmet both drew mentions, but Loveland is the one getting the breakout coverage. The crowd isn't ahead of Nova here; if anything it's behind, still treating the trade rumors as the headline when the more durable fantasy story is the target-share erosion that's been happening for two years regardless of what jersey he wears.

Swing Factors

• 12-personnel usage (+35 pts): if the exec's wish comes true and Johnson genuinely plays Kmet and Loveland together on early downs, Kmet's floor rises meaningfully, this is the single biggest lever.
• A trade before Week 1 (±unknown, but real): five straight months of rumors haven't produced a deal yet; if one lands in a better red-zone offense, price him again, Nova's number assumes he stays in Chicago.
• Loveland's continued ascension (-20 pts): every rep Loveland's route tree expands is a rep Kmet doesn't get; the rookie already out-targeted him in year one.
• Contract-driven urgency (-15 pts): a $50M cap number on a clearly diminished role is exactly the kind of asymmetry front offices resolve with a trade or a release, not patience.

If Everything Goes Right / If Everything Goes Wrong

If everything goes right: the front-office wish comes true, Johnson leans on two-tight-end sets all season, Kmet's blocking and third-down reliability get rewarded with more designed touches, and he climbs to Nova's 90th-percentile outcome, roughly 176 points, a real TE1/TE2 finish. Nova prices that at 6%.

If everything goes wrong: Loveland's target share keeps expanding, the trade rumors resolve with an actual deal to a worse target competition, or Kmet simply keeps sliding the way he has for two years running, and the season lands near the 41-point floor, matching his 62% bust-week rate almost every Sunday. That's not a hypothetical; it's the modal outcome in Nova's own distribution.

Nova's Edge

There's no ADP to argue with, the market hasn't priced Kmet at all for 2026, which is itself the story. No other outlet is putting a number on a player who's simultaneously "still a quality player" per an NFL exec and a name that's appeared in five different trade proposals since February. Nova's edge is being willing to publish a number anyway: TE154 overall, T6, 6% tier-1 odds, and an X-grade DNA that says this role could swing either direction on a single training-camp headline. That's a sharper, more falsifiable claim than "trade rumors" or "buried on the depth chart", and it's the only pre-camp number on the board.

The Bottom Line

Kmet is not a draftable asset in single-TE, PPR, or standard redraft formats at his current signal, this is a streaming name in the deepest of TE-premium or two-TE leagues, and a decent stash in dynasty only if you believe the "get him and Loveland on the field together" plan actually materializes under Johnson. If he lands elsewhere via trade before Week 1, revisit immediately; a change of context is the only lever big enough to move a 6% tier-1 shot into relevance. Gradeable claim for January: Cole Kmet finishes outside the fantasy-relevant TE2 mix (worse than TE24) in more weeks than not, unless a training-camp report confirms real 12-personnel usage with Loveland before the season starts.