Colston Loveland

Where He's Expected to Land

Nova's median sim gives Loveland 172.5 PPR points on 11.8 per game, 61.1 catches, 743.4 yards, 6.2 touchdowns across 15.8 expected games. His likely-finish band runs TE7 to TE27, which is the widest way possible of saying "second-year tight end."

Format matters here. He's #45 overall in PPR (Tier 7), #51 in half-PPR (Tier 7, 42.8 VORP), and #53 in standard (Tier 7, 42.8 VORP). Note the standard-league P(tier-1) climbs to 28%, touchdowns do more of the work there, and touchdowns are the one stat where Nova is bullish (more below).

The Last Three Seasons

He's a second-year pro, not a rookie, so this table is one NFL season plus his final two at Michigan.

The table hides the trajectory. Through Week 8 of his rookie year he never cleared 7 PPR points. From Week 9 on, starting with a 6-118-2 detonation against Cincinnati, he posted three 20-point games and ran as the TE5 rest-of-season, per Footballguys' April accounting, then added 12 catches for 193 yards in two playoff games. The 2024 shoulder that ended his Michigan season is old news; he played all 16 healthy in 2025.

What Changed for Him This Offseason

Nothing structural, and that's the headline. No new team, no injury rehab, no contract noise. He enters year two in the same system at 22, and the only change is the one Chicago is engineering on purpose: a bigger route menu.

Loveland isn't hiding the ambition. "It's watching the tape and knowing it was good for a rookie, but it's not going to be good enough for a second-year or third-year guy," he said in June, via Kole Noble of A to Z Sports (June 10).

What Changed Around Him

• Coaching continuity. Ben Johnson returns for year two, and his Detroit history says the TE1 role grows with trust, Sam LaPorta's rookie-year usage was the template everyone cited when Chicago drafted Loveland 10th overall.
• Cole Kmet stayed. Despite a full offseason of trade rumors, Chicago kept him at a restructured $7.775M cap number. GM Ryan Poles told reporters the team's view of Kmet hasn't changed and cited his leadership, per Pete Martuneac of Bears On SI (May 27). Chicago's heavy 12-personnel usage means Kmet's snaps don't disappear, they coexist with Loveland's.
• A third TE arrived. The Bears drafted Sam Roush in the third round, a depth move more than a target threat, but three bodies in one room.
• Caleb Williams, year three. Same QB, second year in the same scheme, the late-season connection doesn't have to be rebuilt.

What They're Saying

Johnson has been specific about the plan. "We've been able to take the route tree to the next level, and it's something we're going to continue to develop in training camp as well," he said at minicamp on June 9 (via Fox Sports). He also called Loveland one of the most consistent players he's been around, coach-speak, except it came attached to a usage intention, which is the part that moves projections.

The skeptics have a number too. Footballguys' Meng Song flagged (April 18) that Loveland's target surge correlated with Rome Odunze's absence late in 2025, if Odunze plays 17 games, some of that Week 10+ TE5 run was borrowed volume. CBS Sports' staff outlook (June 8) split the difference: real talent and red-zone rapport with Williams, but a target ceiling capped by a crowded skill group and a run-first offense.

Nova's projection already prices the middle of this argument: 61 catches on a 17% target share is modest growth from his rookie 58, not a LaPorta-2023 explosion.

The Buzz

The crowd is fully on board, arguably ahead of the model. SI's fantasy staff ran a TE-tiers piece built around his case to be the best fantasy tight end, Yahoo grouped him with sophomore TEs nowhere near their ceilings, and early ADP has him as the third tight end off the board behind Brock Bowers and Trey McBride. Footballguys' own staff couldn't agree in their April 18 roundtable: Sigmund Bloom argued becoming Chicago's No. 1 target is inside his range of outcomes, while Jeff Haseley rejected the TE3 price outright by pointing at the TE12 finish.

Nova's read: the overall price (45 vs. 44.8 ADP) is fair, but a 24% P(tier-1) is a one-in-four bet, not a coronation. The buzz is treating the right tail as the median.

Swing Factors

• Target share growth (+30 pts): the route-tree expansion is real coach intent. 17% → 20%+ target share turns 61 catches into 75 and the TE7 band into TE3.
• Odunze health (−25 pts): his best rookie stretch overlapped with Odunze's absence. A fully healthy WR room claws back the borrowed targets.
• TD line (±12 pts): Nova projects 6.2 receiving TDs vs. tracked market' 5.5 line, 16 red-zone opportunities as a rookie say the model's lean is earned, but TE touchdowns are the flakiest stat in fantasy.
• 12-personnel split (−15 pts): Kmet stayed and Roush arrived. Loveland's 65% snap share has room to grow, but Chicago's two-TE identity caps how fast.

If Everything Goes Right / If Everything Goes Wrong

If everything goes right: the route-tree talk becomes a 22% target share, Odunze's presence draws safeties instead of targets, and the Week 10-onward TE5 becomes the full-season version. That's the 279-point ceiling in Nova's sim, roughly 17.5 PPG, top-3 TE territory. Nova gives the tier-1 season 24%, and tier-2-or-better 43%.

If everything goes wrong: Odunze and the run game eat the targets, the rookie-year first half (never above 7 points through Week 8) turns out to be the real usage level, and he drifts toward the 65-point floor. The weekly numbers are the warning label: 40% bust rate, only 15% boom. X-grade DNA means you'll bench him in frustration the week before he posts 25.

Nova's Edge

There's no ADP divergence to sell you, Nova 45, market 44.8, +1. When the model agrees with the room, the edge moves to the places single-number sites can't go. Two of them here:

The market TD lean. tracked market hangs Loveland's receiving-TD line at 5.5 with balanced juice; Nova projects 6.2, a 12.7% lean over. Meanwhile Nova is under market's 799.5 receiving-yard line (743.4, −7%). Same player, opposite leans: the model sees a red-zone weapon whose yardage hype has outrun the target math. That's also why his standard-league P(tier-1) (28%) beats his PPR number (24%).

The format split. He's Tier 7 in PPR but Tier 7 in half-PPR, the boards aren't symmetric, and neither is his value. One schedule note without interpretation: Nova lists his early SOS at 11 and playoff SOS at 9.7; the site doesn't yet document the scale's direction, so treat those as reference points, not a lean.

The Bottom Line

At ADP 54.4, early fourth round in 12-team leagues, Loveland is fairly priced, not a value. If you want him, that's where you have to take him; he won't reach round five in any league that watched December. Prefer him in standard and half-PPR, where the TD-driven profile does the most work. In PPR, be honest that you're drafting a 40% weekly bust rate at a fourth-round price, and pair him with a floor-heavy roster, not a boom-heavy one. Skip the Kmet handcuff, this isn't a volume-transfer situation.

The gradeable claim: Nova takes the over on tracked market' 5.5 receiving touchdowns (projection: 6.2), and prices Loveland's top-tier TE season at 24%, a real chance, and three-to-one against. Check us in January.