Dallas Goedert

Where He's Expected to Land

Nova projects 139 total points across 14 expected games, 9.92 PPR points per game, low-end TE1/high-end TE2 territory. The per-game shape is inconsistent: a 47% bust rate (<10 pts), 46% solid weeks (10-20 pts), and just 7% boom weeks (>20 pts). Nova's DNA grade of "V" (Variable) says the same thing differently, a week-to-week coin flip, not a steady floor play. The season-long range runs from a 53-point floor to a 233-point ceiling, with a 14% shot at a tier-1 finish and 30% at tier-2-or-better. The median and the TE10-TE34 likely-finish window both point the same way: a touchdown-dependent TE1/TE2 tweener, not a locked-in weekly starter.

The Last Three Seasons

(PPR points calculated from official receiving stats: 1 pt/reception, 0.1 pt/yard, 6 pts/TD.)

The table hides two things worth naming. 2024 was a lost half-season, a Week 6 hamstring injury cost him three games, then a Week 13 knee injury put him on IR until his January 2025 activation. And 2025 wasn't just a bounce-back, it was a career year: 82 targets (up from 52 across only 10 games in 2024) and 11 receiving touchdowns, a franchise record for an Eagles tight end, breaking Pete Retzlaff's 1965 mark. The TD spike, not the yardage, is what changed his profile.

What Changed for Him This Offseason

Goedert tested free agency, had other offers, then re-signed with Philadelphia on a one-year, $7 million deal, his ninth season with the franchise. The move avoided a roughly $20 million dead-cap hit for the Eagles and came only after the team pushed his contract void date back twice to buy negotiating time, per NFL.com. "I was able to test free agency a little bit. Had opportunities to go elsewhere. Nothing was a better opportunity than I thought I could have here," Goedert told NBC Sports Philadelphia's Dave Zangaro on June 11, 2026. He turned 32 this offseason; his game was never built on separation speed, so the age curve is a smaller worry here than at most positions.

What Changed Around Him

The A.J. Brown trade is the whole story. Philadelphia dealt Brown to the Patriots on June 1, 2026 for a 2028 first-round pick and a 2027 fifth, absorbing $43.36 million in dead cap. The public framing, per ESPN, was that Brown's frustration with the offense and a strained relationship with QB Jalen Hurts made the split unsustainable. Whatever the cause, the effect is concrete: Goedert and DeVonta Smith are now the top two established options in the passing game, with newly acquired WR Dontayvion Wicks, first-round rookie Makai Lemon, and free-agent depth (Hollywood Brown, Elijah Moore) behind them.

New coordinator, TE-centric scheme. The Eagles hired Sean Mannion, previously the Packers' QB coach, as offensive coordinator, installing a timing-based, Shanahan-influenced system that leans on scheming players open, a system Goedert says treats the tight end as "kind of a backbone of the offense," per NBC Sports Philadelphia. He's reportedly studied George Kittle and Tucker Kraft tape to prep for the expanded role.

A rookie insurance policy, not a threat yet. Philadelphia drafted TE Eli Stowers in the second round to pair with Goedert, but a blocking-first veteran (Johnny Mundt) and a rookie TE's normal development curve mean the receiving snaps stay with Goedert in year one. Goedert on Stowers: "I'm here for whatever he needs... that he can lean on me," per the same NBC Sports Philadelphia report.

What They're Saying

The building is bullish on the scheme fit, not just general vibes. Players have "raved" about Mannion's offense through the spring, per atozsports.com, and NBC Sports Philadelphia put Goedert 16th on its 2026 "most important" countdown, tying his value to the post-Brown target vacuum. None of that is usage confirmation from the coordinator himself yet, it's beat reporters reading a scheme install, exactly the kind of signal Nova needs to see repeat in camp before it moves off a 7% boom rate.

The Buzz

Fantasy media swung bullish fast once the Brown trade closed: RotoWire flagged he "could see added targets," Yahoo Sports argued he "should thrive" with Brown off the roster, and RotoBaller framed him as a "low-end TE1" on the strength of his red-zone role. That's real movement in crowd sentiment, and it's still behind Nova's own number. The model already had him 95th overall, well ahead of the room's ADP, before the "he'll thrive" headlines ran.

Swing Factors

• Target consolidation (+30 pts): with Brown gone, Goedert and Smith are the only proven options, a bigger slice of a smaller pie is still a bigger slice.
• Mannion's TE-centric install (+25 pts): a scheme explicitly built to get the tight end open, if it survives first-year installation friction.
• Red-zone role (+20 pts): 11 TDs on similar volume to 2024 says the scoring spike is opportunity-driven, not a fluke (Nova still projects 6.1 TDs, elite for the position).
• Age and durability (-25 pts): a 32-year-old who's already missed real time in two of the last three seasons (2022 shoulder IR, 2024 hamstring/knee IR).
• Eli Stowers snap creep (-15 pts): the rookie TE drafted to pair with him is more a 2027 problem, but faster-than-expected development would eat into red-zone reps now.

If Everything Goes Right / If Everything Goes Wrong

If everything goes right: Mannion's install clicks immediately, the red-zone role holds at or above last year's 15 opportunities, durability stays a non-issue for one more year, and he rides the touchdown equity to the 90th-percentile track, a ~233-point season, top-5 among tight ends. Nova prices the tier-1 season at 14%.

If everything goes wrong: the new scheme takes until midseason to click, Stowers or the run game eats into red-zone volume, and a body that's already been on IR twice in three years breaks down again. He lands near the 53-point floor, droppable in shallower formats by October. The 47% weekly bust rate isn't a tail risk here; it's closer to a coin flip, and it's the number that separates this from a "set and forget" TE1.

Nova's Edge

The Vegas cross-check is specific: DraftKings' season-long line has Goedert at 574.5 receiving yards, but Nova projects lower at 518.1 (-9.8%), the model doesn't buy the full yardage spike the market is pricing. On touchdowns, it's the opposite: DraftKings sits at 4.5, Nova projects 6.1, a +35.6% lean over the market. Read together, Nova thinks Vegas is overrating the route-running bump and underrating the red-zone role, which tracks with the Eagles' own moves (Brown gone, a TE-first scheme, no real receiving competition at the position). On the industry side, FantasyPros' consensus (ECR 112, ADP 135, TE15) sits closer to Nova's own market read (128.9) than to Nova's model rank (95), three price sources roughly agree, and Nova alone argues the price is wrong. One flag: Nova's own displayed divergence figure reads +10, which doesn't reconcile with the 95-vs-128.9 gap on the same page, reported as published, not resolved by guesswork.

The Bottom Line

At an ADP in the 128-135 range (TE10-15 territory, an 11th-12th round pick in most 12-team PPR drafts), Nova says you can pay TE2 money for a player it grades as a fringe top-10 tight end riding real touchdown equity. This isn't a call to reach into the top 100, the 47% weekly bust rate and "V" DNA grade are real, but at his current price, he's a justifiable TE1/TE2 target in the range you'd otherwise spend on a streamer. Draft him as your TE2 with legitimate TE1 spike weeks; if the post-Brown target bump doesn't show in September usage, bench and stream instead. Grade it in January: TE12 or better across a full season means Nova's call on the post-Brown role was right.