DNA grade
DNA grade is NovaPredict's week-to-week consistency grade, from steadiest to swingiest, built from multiple seasons of a player's game logs.
A DNA grade is NovaPredict's week-to-week consistency grade for a player, from steadiest to swingiest, built from multiple seasons of his game logs. It tells you whether a player's season total tends to arrive in even weekly doses or in a few huge games surrounded by duds.
Two players can finish with identical season points and feel completely different to roster. One gives you 12 to 16 points almost every week. The other gives you three games of 30 and six games of 4. Season-long stats hide that difference; the DNA grade is built to expose it.
How to Use It
DNA is a lineup-decision and roster-construction tool.
- Start/sit calls: when two players project similarly, the steadier DNA is usually the safer start, especially in a week you are favored. When you need a big score to pull an upset, the swingy player is the better dice roll.
- Roster building: a team full of swingy players is a boom-or-bust season. Anchoring your lineup with steady DNA at a couple of spots lets you take volatility swings elsewhere without betting the whole roster on variance.
- Trade and waiver context: a hot streak from a historically swingy player is more likely to be variance than a new level. DNA helps you avoid buying the spike.
Read DNA next to the probability bands. The band shows the range Nova projects going forward; DNA shows how the player has historically distributed his production week to week.
What It Is Not
A DNA grade is not a quality grade. A steady grade does not mean good, and a swingy grade does not mean bad; elite players can be volatile and mediocre players can be metronomes. It is also not a projection. It describes an observed pattern from real game logs, not a promise about next week.
For the forward-looking range of outcomes, see Probability bands.
DNA grades sit alongside every player on the board at /rankings.