ADP and ECR
ADP is average draft position from real drafts; ECR is expert consensus rank. NovaPredict shows both as the market, for contrast with Nova Rank.
ADP (average draft position) is where a player is actually being drafted, averaged across real drafts. ECR (expert consensus rank) is where the expert community collectively ranks him. NovaPredict shows both next to its own numbers as market references: they are the market, not Nova.
The distinction matters. Nova Rank is NovaPredict's independent opinion, built on value over replacement. ADP and ECR are what everyone else thinks: the crowd of drafters and the crowd of experts. NovaPredict puts them side by side on purpose, because the gap between Nova's opinion and the market's is where actionable calls come from.
How to Use It
Read ADP and ECR as the price and the consensus, then shop against them.
- ADP is the price. It tells you when a player will realistically be gone in your draft. You do not need to pick a player where Nova ranks him; you need to pick him one spot before your league mates will.
- ECR is the consensus. It tells you what the room believes. Your league mates' boards mostly look like ECR, which is exactly why knowing where Nova disagrees with it is useful.
- The gaps are the strategy. A player Nova likes far more than his ADP is a value you can wait on. A player the market loves more than Nova does is a pick you let someone else make.
What It Is Not
ADP and ECR are not NovaPredict outputs and not endorsements. Seeing a player at ADP 12 on a NovaPredict page does not mean Nova thinks he is the 12th best pick; it means the market is drafting him there. They are shown for contrast, so that every disagreement between Nova and the market is visible instead of hidden.
The measured version of that disagreement is the Divergence Score.
Compare Nova Rank against ADP and ECR for every player at /rankings.