CRPS

CRPS (continuous ranked probability score) is an accuracy score that grades an entire predicted range of outcomes against what actually happened, not just a single point guess. NovaPredict publishes it as one of the core measures of whether its projections are honest.

Because NovaPredict projects a full distribution for every player, floor to ceiling with everything in between, a normal accuracy check like "how far off was the projection?" only grades the middle of that range. CRPS grades all of it. In plain English: it rewards a forecast for putting high probability near the actual result and penalizes it for putting probability far away. Predict a tight range and be right, and you score well. Predict a tight range and be wrong, and you are punished harder than someone who honestly admitted more uncertainty.

How to Read It

Lower is better. A CRPS of zero would mean a perfect forecast, which does not exist in football.

• Compare, do not stare. A CRPS value on its own means little. Its power is in comparison: Nova versus a market-only baseline, this week versus last week, one position versus another.
• Watch the trend. The number that matters is whether Nova's distributions keep beating the baseline as real weeks pile up.
• Trust the shape, not just the middle. A good CRPS record means the whole band, including the boom and bust tails, has been earning its keep, so the floor and ceiling on a player page are more than decoration.

NovaPredict's CRPS record starts accumulating in Week 1 of the 2026 season. Every projection is locked before kickoff and graded afterward, misses included.

What It Is Not

CRPS is not a percentage of correct picks and not a rating of players; it is a grade on forecasts. It also does not grade a single game, in the sense that one week proves little. It is a running measure of whether the ranges Nova publishes deserve your trust.

For what those ranges actually contain, see Probability bands.

Follow the live graded record at /accountability.