Nova Rank

Nova Rank is NovaPredict's independent ranking of a player by value over replacement (VORP). It is Nova's own opinion, built separately from ADP and expert consensus, and it orders players by how much they help you win rather than by raw projected points.

Ranking by value over replacement means positional scarcity is priced in. A running back projected for 220 points can outrank a quarterback projected for 320 if replacement-level running backs are far worse than replacement-level quarterbacks. Nova Rank answers the question that actually matters on draft day: how many points does this player add over the guy you could get off the street?

How to Use It

Use Nova Rank as your draft board and your trade compass.

• On draft day: when your pick comes up, the highest available Nova Rank is Nova's opinion of the best value on the board, before you adjust for your roster's needs.
• Finding value: compare Nova Rank to ADP. A player Nova ranks 15th who is being drafted 30th is a target. A player Nova ranks 40th being drafted 20th is a price you should let someone else pay.
• In trades: if you are giving up the better Nova Rank, make sure something else, like roster fit or a bye-week fix, justifies the gap.

Nova Rank works alongside tiers. The rank tells you the order; the tiers tell you where the real drop-offs are, so you know when you can wait a round and when you cannot.

What It Is Not

Nova Rank is not a projected-points leaderboard, and it is not a repackaged consensus. Two players can have similar season projections and very different Nova Ranks because their positions dry up at different rates. And because it is independent of ADP and ECR, it will sometimes disagree sharply with where players are actually being drafted. That disagreement is the point.

See how value over replacement works in VORP.

Browse the full board, with Nova Rank next to ADP for every format, at /rankings.