Divergence Score

A Divergence Score is NovaPredict's uncertainty-adjusted measure of how far its projection for a player sits from the Vegas betting market. A positive score means Nova is higher on the player than the market; a negative score means Nova is lower.

NovaPredict treats the sharp betting market as the baseline of what is knowable about a player. Most of the time, Nova and Vegas roughly agree, and the Divergence Score sits near zero. When they disagree, the score tells you which direction and how strongly, after accounting for how uncertain that player's range of outcomes is. A small gap on a volatile player means less than the same gap on a steady one, and the score reflects that.

How to Read It

Divergence is where an edge lives. Treat it as a shortlist builder, not an automatic verdict.

• Large positive score: Nova sees more value than the market is pricing in. These are your draft targets, waiver adds, and buy-low trade candidates.
• Large negative score: Nova sees less than the market does. Think twice before paying the sticker price on draft day, and consider selling in trades.
• Near zero: Nova and Vegas agree. The market price is fair, so let positional need and roster fit decide.

In a draft, a player with a strong positive Divergence Score who is still on the board at his ADP is the cleanest kind of value pick. In season, a widening divergence can flag a breakout or a decline before consensus rankings catch up.

What It Is Not

Divergence Score is not a projection and not a rank. It does not say a player will score a certain number of points; it says how far Nova's view sits from the market's view. A high score is a disagreement worth investigating, not a guarantee that Nova is right. The public record of who wins those disagreements is graded every week once the season starts.

For the ranking side of the equation, see Nova Rank.

See the current disagreements between Nova and the market at /divergence.