Probability bands

Probability bands are NovaPredict's range of likely outcomes for a player: a floor (the 10th percentile outcome), a median (the middle outcome), and a ceiling (the 90th percentile outcome), for the season or the week. Alongside the band, Nova publishes a boom%, a bust%, and the player's odds of a tier-1 finish at his position.

The bands exist because a player is not a single number. NovaPredict rebuilds each player's full range of outcomes from the sharp betting market, then reports the shape of that range. Roughly one season in ten, the player lands below his floor; roughly one in ten, above his ceiling. Everything in between is the realistic middle.

How to Read It

The band changes decisions the median alone cannot.

• Wide band: high risk, high reward. A player whose ceiling is far above his median is a league-winner bet, and his bust% tells you the cost of being wrong.
• Narrow band: dependable. Great for a roster that just needs steady points, or a week where you are favored and want to avoid disasters.
• Same median, different call: two players can project for the same median points while one has a 25% boom rate and the other a 25% bust rate. Chasing an upset? Take the boom. Protecting a lead? Take the floor.
• Tier-1 odds answer the draft-day question directly: what is the realistic chance this pick finishes as an elite option at his position?

What It Is Not

The floor is not the worst case and the ceiling is not the best case; they are the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, so real results will land outside the band about one time in five by design. The band is also not a hedge or a refusal to commit. It is a precise claim about probability, and NovaPredict grades how honest that claim is, in public, every week of the season.

See how the bands are graded against reality in Coverage.

Every player's band is on the board at /rankings.