Mark Andrews

Where He's Expected to Land

Nova's median outcome is 131 projected points across an expected 15.6 games, 8.6 PPR points per game, good for a likely finish range of TE12 through TE35. That's TE2 territory on a good week and waiver-wire filler on a bad one. He sits in Tier 7, with a 12% shot at a tier-1 season and a 26% shot at finishing tier-2 or better. Weekly, Nova has him bust (under 10 PPR points) 54% of the time, solid (10-20) 41% of the time, and boom (20-plus) just 5% of the time. The DNA grade is V, volatile, not steady, which tracks: this is a player whose season outcome depends on a small number of touchdown-driven spikes, not weekly volume.

The Last Three Seasons

A broken leg/ankle injury ended his 2023 season in mid-November, but he was still averaging roughly 15.6 fantasy points per game when healthy. 2024 was the true baseline: a full season capped by a monster stretch, 45 catches on 55 targets (81.8%) for 553 yards and 11 touchdowns over his final 12 games, that finished 6th among tight ends in PPR scoring at 188.80 points. 2025 was the outlier in the other direction: a career-low 422 receiving yards despite full-season availability, with Lamar Jackson missing four games and the passing offense never finding rhythm. ESPN's Jeremy Fowler dropped Andrews from the No. 6 tight end entering 2025 to No. 9 entering 2026 in ESPN's annual positional rankings, published July 10, 2026, while noting Andrews still beat his expected-catch total by 1.3 receptions per NFL Next Gen Stats, a sign the drop-off was more about opportunity than ability.

What Changed for Him This Offseason

Andrews signed a three-year, $39.3 million extension on December 3, 2025 ($26 million assured), making him the sixth-highest-paid tight end in the league by average annual value. Ravens GM Eric DeCosta called him "an all-time Raven, a top competitor and Pro Bowl tight end who is also a big part of our Baltimore community." The deal came the same season he passed Derrick Mason as the franchise's all-time leading receiver. He turns 31 in September, the age curve is real, but the front office just bet real money against it.

What Changed Around Him

Coaching: John Harbaugh was fired after his 18th season ended without a playoff berth, and he's now the Giants' head coach. Baltimore replaced him with Jesse Minter, the former Chargers defensive coordinator (2024-2025), meaning offensive play-calling now belongs to first-year OC Declan Doyle, hired away from the Bears. Andrews has called the new install "totally different than anything we've done" since he entered the league, with more play-action built in.

Teammates: Both tight ends behind Andrews on the depth chart left in free agency. Isaiah Likely, who battled a training-camp foot injury and managed just 18 catches for 223 yards over nine games in 2025, signed with the Giants, reuniting with Harbaugh. Charlie Kolar signed with the Chargers. Baltimore's only addition at the position is veteran Durham Smythe, and the team is expected to address tight end depth in the draft. Nova's 2025 usage numbers already show Andrews commanding a 62% snap share and a 17% target share in a three-man room; with Likely and Kolar gone, that target share has real room to climb even if raw volume around him doesn't change.

What They're Saying

Andrews told CBS Sports on June 29, 2026 that Doyle's scheme is unlike anything he's run in Baltimore, adding of Lamar Jackson: "I think that's a scary sight when you see Lamar Jackson adding new things to his repertoire." He's also been vocal about his own role, telling NFL.com on April 9, 2026 that "there's going to be a lot of opportunities in this offense" and that he's "always felt like that guy." Those are the words of an incumbent selling his own market, and Nova's projection doesn't fully buy it, the model still has him at a below-replacement VORP even with the extra target share priced in.

The Buzz

The fantasy content circuit is split in a way that mirrors Nova's own tension. Onsi's Shawn Childs argued on May 8, 2026 that Andrews' TE19 ADP "doesn't match his upside," pointing to a realistic 70-catch, 750-yard, team-leading-touchdowns outcome if he's healthy for all 17 games. ESPN's Fowler is the counterweight, sliding him to TE9 in positional power rankings on the back of the 2025 decline. Nova lands in between both camps: better than the room's ADP by 17 spots, but nowhere close to the bell-cow outcome the bulls are pricing.

Swing Factors

• Lamar Jackson's health (largest lever, ±): Jackson missed four games in 2025 and Andrews' production collapsed with him, the single biggest variable in either direction.
• Target-share reallocation (+, moderate): Likely and Kolar are gone; Durham Smythe is the only depth behind Andrews. A 17% target share has room to grow toward 20%+ on vacated volume alone.
• New-scheme uncertainty (± large): First-year OC Declan Doyle has zero Baltimore track record at tight end. Nova's wide 49-218 range partly reflects not yet knowing how this offense uses its TE1.
• market skepticism on yardage (-, priced in): tracked market' receiving-yards line sits at 524.5 with the market leaning over; Nova projects just 461.9, the model doesn't expect the target bump to translate one-for-one into yardage.
• Age-31 wear (-, small): Eighth NFL season, two years removed from a season-ending leg injury and coming off a down year. Not a major discount yet, but a real tail risk.

If Everything Goes Right / If Everything Goes Wrong

If everything goes right: Doyle's play-action-heavy install creates the kind of seam and red-zone looks Andrews thrived on in his 2024 second half, the vacated 35% of the room's target share lands mostly on his plate, and Jackson stays healthy all 17 games. Andrews hits Nova's 90th-percentile outcome, roughly 218 points, a TE1 week-to-week season that looks a lot like his 2024 finish. Nova prices the tier-1 season at 12%.

If everything goes wrong: Jackson misses time again, Doyle leans on 12-personnel less than expected, and a rookie or Durham Smythe siphons enough red-zone work to flatten Andrews into replacement-level. He limps to the 49-point floor, barely a streaming option, with a 54% weekly bust rate doing the damage one Sunday at a time.

Nova's Edge

No other outlet will tell you Andrews is simultaneously a value against ADP and a below-replacement asset in median terms, but both are true, and that's the profile. The 17-spot rank-vs-ADP gap says the room is sleeping slightly on the target-share math. The -8.4 VORP says don't get carried away: Tier 7 is Tier 7. And the market gap, Nova sits 62 yards under the market's receiving-yards line, says the model thinks the "new offense, easier targets" story driving the buzz is already overpriced into that prop, even if it isn't yet overpriced into ADP.

The Bottom Line

Andrews at pick 130 (roughly a Round 11 pick in 12-team formats) is a reasonable TE2 stash, not a plan. Nova's edge says he's a marginal value where he's currently going, but the 54% weekly bust rate and 5% boom rate mean he needs matchup or streaming judgment more than season-long trust. Pair him with a higher-floor TE1 rather than building around him. We'll grade this one in January: Nova gives Andrews a 26% shot at a top-24 (tier-2+) tight end season against a 54% shot at busting more weeks than he doesn't, draft accordingly.