Kyler Murray
QBMIN· bye 6· Nova #148 · T7DNA S+
-31
VORP
149.3
ADP
17.22
PPR / game
Nova overview
Kyler Murray is Nova's 148th-ranked player overall (QB, MIN), in Tier 7. Nova projects roughly 235 points this season, about 17.22 per game.
Nova and the market roughly agree on him (ADP 149, Nova 148).
Nova gives him about a 7% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 61 points (floor) to 316 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades S+ (Elite consistency). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks soft.
Usage & opportunity2025 · 5 games
Snap share99%
Target share0%
Carry share25%
Air-yards share0%
WOPR (opportunity)0
Red-zone opps (1 TD)4
18.8
Early SOS (wk 1-4)
28.3 soft
Playoff SOS (wk 15-17)
6
Bye week
Season budget pace
full board →-11%Behind
60.4 of 187.6 banked · 4wrevised 176.1
-11% behind pace, a bounce-back candidate if the role holds.
Per-game points distribution
10%
Bust <10 pts
59%
Solid 10–20 pts
31%
Boom >20 pts
Not one number. The probability of every weekly outcome, from the player’s real week-to-week range across 30 games.
Season outcome range
floor 61 ptmed 235 ptceil 316 pt
7%
P(tier-1)
19%
P(tier-2+)
QB15-QB45
likely finish
Report card
Upside · P(tier-1)7%
Opportunity · snaps99%
Rank edge vs market+16
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 148 | T7 | -31 | 7% | QB15-QB45 | 61.3-315.5 |
| Half PPR | 156 | T8 | -31.5 | 7% | QB15-QB45 | 61.3-315.5 |
| Standard | 165 | T9 | -31.1 | 7% | QB15-QB45 | 61.3-315.5 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 101 | T7 | 0 | 7% | QB15-QB45 | 61.3-315.5 |
Nova season stat lines11.1 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Rushing Yards | 354.5 |
| Rushing TDs | 3 |
| Passing Yards | 2397.9 |
| Passing TDs | 13.7 |
2025 usage profile5 games
99%
snap share
5.8
carries / game
25%
team carry share
6
yards / carry
4
red-zone opportunities (1 TDs)
+0.5
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+0.1
TD pace vs position (7 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
2
broken tackles forced
26
rush yards before contact / g
8.6
rush yards after contact / g
32
times pressured
16.5%
pressure rate faced
35
times blitzed
16
times sacked
7
times hurried
9
times hit
16%
bad throw rate
No season futures captured for this player yet. The market board rotates and coverage grows Mon/Wed/Fri.
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | ARI vs NO | 163-2-0 pass, 7-38-0 rush | 18.3 |
| W2 | ARI vs CAR | 220-1-1 pass, 7-32-0 rush | 14.0 |
| W3 | ARI vs SF | 159-1-0 pass, 6-37-0 rush | 14.1 |
| W4 | ARI vs SEA | 200-2-2 pass, 5-41-0 rush | 16.1 |
| W5 | ARI vs TEN | 220-0-0 pass, 4-25-1 rush | 15.3 |