Derek Carr
QBNO· bye 8· Nova #180 · T7DNA S+
-50
VORP
13.15
PPR / game
Nova overview
Derek Carr is Nova's 180th-ranked player overall (QB, NO), in Tier 7. Nova projects roughly 196 points this season, about 13.15 per game.
There is no market ADP on him yet, so this is Nova's read alone.
Nova gives him about a 5% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 61 points (floor) to 295 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades S+ (Elite consistency). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks average.
17.3
Early SOS (wk 1-4)
21.7
Playoff SOS (wk 15-17)
8
Bye week
Season budget pace
full board →+9%On pace
57.5 of 180.2 banked · 4wrevised 188.3
on pace (+9%), performing about as projected.
Per-game points distribution
29%
Bust <10 pts
58%
Solid 10–20 pts
12%
Boom >20 pts
Not one number. The probability of every weekly outcome, from the player’s real week-to-week range across 27 games.
Season outcome range
floor 61 ptmed 196 ptceil 295 pt
5%
P(tier-1)
15%
P(tier-2+)
QB17-QB46
likely finish
Report card
Upside · P(tier-1)5%
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 180 | T7 | -50 | 5% | QB17-QB46 | 60.6-294.5 |
| Half PPR | 174 | T8 | -42.3 | 5% | QB17-QB46 | 60.6-294.5 |
| Standard | 170 | T9 | -34.2 | 5% | QB17-QB46 | 60.6-294.5 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 137 | T7 | -19.1 | 5% | QB17-QB46 | 60.6-294.5 |