Taysom Hill

Where He's Expected to Land

Nova's budget for Hill is roughly 78 points, 5.92 per game, with a season range of 30 (floor) to 133 (ceiling) and a likely finish between TE27 and TE49 in PPR. He carries an X-grade DNA, Nova's label for extreme boom/bust, which shows up in the per-game split: 59% bust weeks (under 10 PPR points), 35% solid, and just 6% boom (20+). Standard scoring bumps him to T7 with a friendlier 5% P(tier-1), a reminder that his value has always leaned on touchdowns rather than volume.

The Last Three Seasons

The trend line is a slide, not a plateau. 2023 was a full, healthy season and his best receiving output. 2024 cost him half the year. 2025 brought the games back (13) but not the production: per Saints Wire's year-in-review (Feb. 27, 2026), Hill finished with only two total touchdowns, one rushing, one passing, his lowest touchdown total since 2017, when he barely played. Catches have fallen every year since 2023 (33 → 23 → 11). For a player whose entire fantasy case is built on scoring, not touches, that's the number that matters most.

What Changed for Him This Offseason

Hill's offseason opened in limbo. Reporter Katherine Terrell noted his contract voided in the spring, with New Orleans giving him time to decide between playing on and retirement. By mid-May, Fox8Live (May 18, 2026) was drawing a pointed contrast: Cam Jordan had a new contract offer on the table; Hill did not. Nova's page has him rostered with New Orleans for 2026, so he's playing, but this wasn't a normal re-signing, and the uncertainty itself is a data point about how the front office currently values him.

What Changed Around Him

2026 is Kellen Moore's second season as Saints head coach; NOLA.com's beat coverage (Sept. 20, 2025) described him overhauling the offense on arrival in 2025, replacing the scheme run by since-departed OC Klint Kubiak (who left after 2024 and is now Seattle's head coach). More relevant to Hill: the Saints spent real resources reinforcing the tight end room this offseason, adding Noah Fant and Oscar Delp. Crescent City Sports (Les East, June 23, 2026) framed the position as a strength built around Juwan Johnson, who had a career year in 2025, not around Hill. WhoDatDish (June 18, 2026) reported that the added competition at tight end has narrowed the path back to a featured role for Hill. None of this reads like a team building a package offense around a 36-year-old gadget piece; it reads like a team that finally has enough tight end depth to stop needing one.

The Buzz

Fantasy chatter on Hill has always been outsized relative to his week-to-week floor, Yahoo once gave him dual QB/TE eligibility, and he still generates "stash" conversation purely off name recognition and his history of vulture touchdowns. That buzz has cooled considerably heading into 2026; with catches and touchdowns both cratering in 2025 and a contract situation that never resolved cleanly, the crowd's expectations have converged with Nova's rather than exceeding them. When buzz and model agree this closely, there's no contrarian angle to chase.

Swing Factors

• Red-zone/short-yardage share (+30 pts): Even two or three extra vulture scores would meaningfully lift a player whose median outcome is barely 6 points a game.
• TE room pecking order (-20 pts): Johnson, Fant, and Delp all compete for the same snaps Hill would need to matter.
• Health (±25 pts): He missed half of 2024; durability is not assumed at this stage of his career.
• Role clarity (wide range): The offseason never produced a defined plan for him, which is itself downside risk.

If Everything Goes Right / If Everything Goes Wrong

If everything goes right: Moore leans back into 12/13-personnel gadget packages in year two of his install, Hill reclaims a real short-yardage and red-zone role, and he approaches his 2023 form as a touchdown-vulture floor play. That's roughly Nova's 90th-percentile outcome, about 133 points, still a low-end TE streamer, not a difference-maker. Nova prices the tier-1 season at just 2%.

If everything goes wrong: Fant, Delp, and Johnson absorb the snaps, a shoulder or leg injury costs him another half-season like 2024, and he spends stretches inactive. That's the 59% bust-week reality already baked into the model, with a 30-point floor for the full season, territory where he's not rosterable in any format Nova tracks.

Nova's Edge

The edge here isn't a disagreement with the market, it's that there is no market to disagree with. No other site is publishing a quantified probability that Taysom Hill has a usable fantasy season in 2026; Nova is. And the number it publishes (2% tier-1, 59% weekly bust rate, VORP nearly 59 points underwater) is a clean, gradeable claim in a spot where lazier coverage would just call him "still worth a late-round flier because he's Taysom Hill."

The Bottom Line

Undraftable in PPR, Half PPR, and Standard formats, every format Nova tracks; the only scenario where he belongs on a roster is a deep dynasty or superflex league still carrying his QB eligibility as a luxury. Do not spend a pick on him in redraft leagues. Nova's gradeable claim for January: Taysom Hill finishes outside TE27 more often than not, and the front office's own contract hesitance this offseason will prove to be the more accurate signal than his name recognition.