Tyler Warren

Where He's Expected to Land

Nova's median season: 188 PPR points at 11.35 per game across an expected 16.5 games, 75.7 catches, 812.1 receiving yards, 4 receiving touchdowns, plus a rushing score sprinkled in (Steichen still uses him near the goal line). The page prices his likely finish range at TE6–TE24.

The shape matters more than the midpoint. That S+ DNA grade, Nova's elite-consistency tag, comes from a week-to-week profile of 58% solid weeks (10–20 PPR points) and only 3% booms above 20. He's a metronome, not a slot machine.

One caveat, date-stamped July 11, 2026: his player page still shows a leftover 2025 in-season pace widget and labels the projections "2025." The numbers above reconcile with the 2026 median (75.7 + 812.1 + 5 TDs ≈ 188), so we're treating them as the forward projection.

The Last Three Seasons

Warren is a second-year pro, he has exactly one NFL season, so two of these three rows are Penn State, and we're saying that plainly rather than hiding it.

Year	Team	Games	Receiving	Fantasy result
2023	Penn State	13	34-422-7	, (college)
2024	Penn State	16	104-1,233-8, plus 26-218-4 rushing	Mackey Award, first-team All-American
2025	IND	17	76-817-4 (112 targets), 1 rush TD	TE9 in PPR, ~11.1 PPG, Pro Bowl

The 2025 line hides a two-act season. Warren was the TE3 in PPR scoring through the season's first seven weeks, per Razzball, then faded to TE13 over the back half, and Daniel Jones's December 7 Achilles tear took away whatever ceiling the offense had left. He never missed a game: 17 of 17 as a rookie, 84% snap share.

What Changed for Him This Offseason

Almost nothing, and for a 24-year-old coming off a Pro Bowl rookie year, that stability is the headline. No injury, no contract noise, no depth-chart threat. His offseason was a body-and-details project. "Working on his body and just getting into great physical shape, and coming in and out of breaks," is how head coach Shane Steichen described Warren's focus at OTAs, via Mike Chappell of FOX 59/CBS 4 (reported by NFL.com, June 21, 2026).

Chappell also reported Warren routinely flashed in offseason workouts, and Warren himself framed year two as the first offseason he's had his own film to study.

What Changed Around Him

The environment moved a lot more than Warren did:

• Michael Pittman Jr. traded to Pittsburgh. Pittman's 111 targets were second on the team, one behind Warren's 112. Indy barely replaced them: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine in free agency and a seventh-round receiver (Deion Burks). Pro Football Rumors reported in May that the Colts didn't plan to pursue a No. 3 wideout; a June 19 follow-up had them mulling a veteran addition, so the thin room could still add one more mouth.
• Daniel Jones is rehabbing an Achilles. "Certainly expect him to be a big part of the offense again," Jones said of Warren, via Chappell (NFL.com, June 21, 2026). Colts.com's JJ Stankevitz reported June 10 that Jones was in 7-on-7s by the end of the offseason program, is expected to be ready for training camp, and should be available for the September 13 opener against Baltimore, with Steichen saying he's hitting every rehab landmark. The backup is second-year QB Riley Leonard, who started after Jones went down last December.
• Josh Downs is the other claimant. GM Chris Ballard spent the spring talking up an expanded Downs role, including outside snaps (Colts.com, offseason 2026). Downs, not Warren, is the team's preferred answer for Pittman's perimeter work, which caps how much of the vacated volume lands on the tight end.

What They're Saying

The through-line from Indy is role security, not role expansion: Jones names Warren a centerpiece, Steichen talks about refinement rather than new packages, and the Downs push is where the coaching staff's creative energy is going. Nova's 22% target share and 6.6 targets per game projection, essentially a rerun of 2025's team-leading usage, already prices all of that in. Nobody in the building is promising him Pittman's targets; they're promising him his own.

The Buzz

The fantasy internet is well ahead of the beat writers. Yahoo's Justin Boone (June 12, 2026) ranks Warren TE4 with an "ascending TE1" label and projects 84-929-5; 4for4 ran a July 8 piece by Justin Edwards arguing he's ready to join the elite tight-end tier. The crowd's case is the vacated Pittman volume plus second-year growth. Nova agrees on the direction, that's why it's two rounds ahead of ADP, but not the magnitude: a 3% boom rate and a 4-TD projection is a long way from "elite ceiling."

Swing Factors

• Pittman's 111 vacated targets (+25 pts): even one extra target per game at his 68% catch rate adds roughly a category of finish. The Downs plan is what keeps this from being +50.
• Jones's Achilles (−45 pts if it goes wrong): Warren was a top-3 PPR tight end with a healthy Jones and TE13 over the back half of 2025. A setback puts Riley Leonard under center and drags Warren toward the floor.
• Touchdown progression (+15 pts): 21 red-zone targets, fifth among tight ends, per 4for4, bought him only 4 receiving TDs. Vegas prices 5.5; Nova prices 4. Every extra score is 6 points he doesn't currently carry.
• Second-half fade repeating (−20 pts): back-end TE1 production over the final two months is already baked into a 188 median; a full-season version of his October form is not.

If Everything Goes Right

Jones is truly 100% by Week 1, the Pittman targets consolidate instead of scattering, and the red-zone luck turns, six or seven touchdowns on the same red-zone diet. That's the 305-point ceiling Nova's sim already sees: a top-3 tight end season. Nova gives a tier-2-or-better finish 49%, and a genuine tier-1 season 29%.

If Everything Goes Wrong

Jones's Achilles barks in camp, Leonard starts September, and the offense flattens the way it did last December. Warren stays on the field, he's never missed a game at any level that matters, but 11-point weeks become 8-point weeks, and he lands near the 69-point floor of the distribution. The weekly bust rate (under 10 PPR points) is 39% even in the median world; that's the number that keeps him out of Nova's top two rounds.

Nova's Edge

Two things nobody else will tell you. First, the Vegas split: Nova is 12.1% over DraftKings' 724.5 receiving-yards line (Nova: 812) but 27.3% under the 5.5 receiving-TD line (Nova: 4). The market is betting on a scoring spike; the model is betting on catches. If you want the same lean, the yardage over is the Nova-aligned prop, not the TDs.

Second, a transparency flag: the player page displays divergence as −6 and frames it as Nova sitting below the Vegas market, while rank (34) versus ADP (55) says Nova is about 21 picks above the draft room. Both numbers are as published; the ADP gap is the one that matters for your draft. His playoff SOS (22.3, which the page labels soft) is a quiet bonus for the weeks you actually need him.

The Bottom Line

At ADP 55, the middle of Round 5 in 12-team leagues, Warren is a value in every format, and the play is simple: let the room chase Bowers, McBride, and the Loveland hype two rounds earlier, then take the position's steadiest 6.6-targets-a-week profile at a discount. He's fairly priced from pick 34 on; ahead of that you're paying for a ceiling Nova prices at 3% weekly booms. In PPR and full-point TE-premium formats, bump him a half-round.

The gradeable claim: Warren finishes 2026 as a top-6 PPR tight end, clears 800 receiving yards for the second straight year, and does not score more than 5 receiving touchdowns.