Gardner Minshew
QBKC· bye 5· Nova #425 · T7DNA B
-109.1
VORP
9.56
PPR / game
Nova overview
Gardner Minshew is Nova's 425th-ranked player overall (QB, KC), in Tier 7. Nova projects roughly 127 points this season, about 9.56 per game.
There is no market ADP on him yet, so this is Nova's read alone.
Nova gives him about a 0% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 33 points (floor) to 164 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades B (Baseline). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks tough.
13.6
Early SOS (wk 1-4)
11 tough
Playoff SOS (wk 15-17)
5
Bye week
Season budget pace
full board →+37%Ahead
47.6 of 90.5 banked · 4wrevised 110.1
+37% ahead of pace, some regression likely.
Per-game points distribution
48%
Bust <10 pts
45%
Solid 10–20 pts
7%
Boom >20 pts
Not one number. The probability of every weekly outcome, from the player’s real week-to-week range across 30 games.
Season outcome range
floor 33 ptmed 127 ptceil 164 pt
0%
P(tier-1)
1%
P(tier-2+)
QB37-QB73
likely finish
Report card
Upside · P(tier-1)0%
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 425 | T7 | -109.1 | 0% | QB37-QB73 | 32.8-163.5 |
| Half PPR | 498 | T8 | -101.4 | 0% | QB37-QB73 | 32.8-163.5 |
| Standard | 618 | T9 | -93.3 | 0% | QB37-QB73 | 32.8-163.5 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 273 | T7 | -78.1 | 0% | QB37-QB73 | 32.8-163.5 |