Michael Carter
RBARI· bye 14· Nova #313 · T7DNA B
-91.9
VORP
6.07
PPR / game
Nova overview
Michael Carter is Nova's 313th-ranked player overall (RB, ARI), in Tier 7. Nova projects roughly 79 points this season, about 6.07 per game.
There is no market ADP on him yet, so this is Nova's read alone.
Nova gives him about a 2% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 22 points (floor) to 155 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades B (Baseline). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks soft.
13.2
Early SOS (wk 1-4)
22 soft
Playoff SOS (wk 15-17)
14
Bye week
Season budget pace
full board →79 pt pool
Full preseason budget. Weekly drawdown and pace tracking begin Week 1.
Per-game points distribution
77%
Bust <10 pts
23%
Solid 10–20 pts
0%
Boom >20 pts
Not one number. The probability of every weekly outcome, from the player’s real week-to-week range across 31 games.
Season outcome range
floor 22 ptmed 79 ptceil 155 pt
2%
P(tier-1)
7%
P(tier-2+)
RB46-RB81
likely finish
Report card
Upside · P(tier-1)2%
Rank edge vs market+37
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 313 | T7 | -91.9 | 2% | RB46-RB81 | 22.3-154.7 |
| Half PPR | 364 | T8 | -88 | 2% | RB49-RB83 | 18.6-129.1 |
| Standard | 460 | T9 | -82.3 | 1% | RB54-RB85 | 14.9-103.6 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 333 | T7 | -93.1 | 2% | RB46-RB81 | 22.3-154.7 |