Jalen Nailor
WRLV· bye 13· Nova #232 · T7DNA V
-72.3
VORP
133.4
ADP
5.99
PPR / game
Nova overview
Jalen Nailor is Nova's 232nd-ranked player overall (WR, LV), in Tier 7. Nova projects roughly 89 points this season, about 5.99 per game.
He is a reach by Nova's math: the market takes him around pick 133, ahead of Nova's 232.
Nova gives him about a 1% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 31 points (floor) to 142 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades V (Variable). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks average.
Usage & opportunity2025 · 17 games
Snap share65%
Target share12%
Carry share1%
Air-yards share17%
Catch rate55%
WOPR (opportunity)0.295
Red-zone opps (4 TD)13
10.7 tough
Early SOS (wk 1-4)
17
Playoff SOS (wk 15-17)
13
Bye week
Season budget pace
full board →+37%AheadSell high
32.4 of 84.2 banked · 4wrevised 100.3
+37% ahead of pace, some regression likely, a sell-high window.
Per-game points distribution
71%
Bust <10 pts
29%
Solid 10–20 pts
0%
Boom >20 pts
Not one number. The probability of every weekly outcome, from the player’s real week-to-week range across 35 games.
Season outcome range
floor 31 ptmed 89 ptceil 142 pt
1%
P(tier-1)
3%
P(tier-2+)
WR70-WR131
likely finish
Report card
Upside · P(tier-1)1%
Opportunity · snaps65%
Rank edge vs market-92
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 232 | T7 | -72.3 | 1% | WR70-WR131 | 30.5-142.4 |
| Half PPR | 216 | T8 | -59.1 | 1% | WR66-WR129 | 26.1-121.8 |
| Standard | 210 | T9 | -46.5 | 1% | WR62-WR125 | 21.7-101.1 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 247 | T7 | -72.9 | 1% | WR70-WR131 | 30.5-142.4 |
Nova season stat lines14.2 expected games
| Stat | Nova projection |
|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 358.3 |
| Receptions | 24.2 |
| Receiving TDs | 3.8 |
| Rushing Yards | 5.7 |
2025 usage profile17 games
65%
snap share
3.1
targets / game
12%
team target share
17%
air yards share
0.295
WOPR (opportunity)
1.7
receptions / game
55%
catch rate
8.4
yards / target
38.6
air yards / game
13
red-zone opportunities (4 TDs)
+1.4
TD equity (over pace, regression risk)
+0.7
TD pace vs position (4 total)
PFR advanced (2025)Pro-Football-Reference, regular season
2
broken tackles forced
0.5
rush yards before contact / g
6
rush yards after contact / g
1
drops
2.9%
drop rate
68.4
passer rating when targeted
No season futures captured for this player yet. The market board rotates and coverage grows Mon/Wed/Fri.
2025 game logregular season, nflverse weekly stats
| Week | Opp | Stat line | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | MIN vs CHI | 1-28-0 (3 tgt) | 3.8 |
| W2 | MIN vs ATL | 3-31-0 (5 tgt) | 6.1 |
| W3 | MIN vs CIN | 3-37-0 (5 tgt) | 6.7 |
| W4 | MIN vs PIT | 1-2-1 (4 tgt) | 9.2 |
| W5 | MIN vs CLE | 3-27-0 (4 tgt), 1-15 rush | 7.2 |
| W7 | MIN vs PHI | 2-37-0 (4 tgt) | 5.7 |
| W8 | MIN vs LAC | 0-0-0 (1 tgt) | 0.0 |
| W9 | MIN vs DET | 1-16-0 (4 tgt) | 2.6 |
| W10 | MIN vs BAL | 5-124-1 (6 tgt) | 23.4 |
| W11 | MIN vs CHI | 1-16-0 (1 tgt) | 2.6 |
| W12 | MIN vs GB | 0-0-0 (1 tgt) | 0.0 |
| W13 | MIN vs SEA | 0-0-0 (1 tgt) | 0.0 |
| W14 | MIN vs WAS | 3-30-0 (3 tgt) | 6.0 |
| W15 | MIN vs DAL | 3-47-2 (5 tgt), 1--2 rush | 19.5 |
| W16 | MIN vs NYG | 0-0-0 (2 tgt) | 0.0 |
| W17 | MIN vs DET | 0-0-0 (1 tgt) | 0.0 |
| W18 | MIN vs GB | 3-49-0 (3 tgt) | 7.9 |