Dylan Sampson

Where He's Expected to Land

Nova's budget for Sampson is thin: roughly 97 points across a full season, or 6.41 per game, with a simulated range from a 25-point floor to a 186-point ceiling. That's a wide band for such a low median, a signal that his outcome depends almost entirely on role, not talent. The format splits make the same point sharper: Nova has him RB-206 in PPR but RB-298 in Standard, a 92-spot swing. Take away receptions and there's almost no player left. P(tier-2+) sits at just 13%.

The Last Season (His Only One)

Sampson has one NFL season on the books, so there's no three-year trend to chart, just his 2025 rookie year in Cleveland.

Sixty-five carries for 175 yards is a third-string workload, and it shows: he never topped 12 carries in a game. The receiving line, 33 catches on 40 targets for 271 yards and two scores, is the more interesting number, especially the 8-catch, 64-yard season opener that hinted at a real receiving role before Cleveland's staff mostly shelved it. He played behind one of the league's worst offensive lines on a 5-12 team, which caps how much blame belongs to him individually.

What Changed for Him This Offseason

Nothing external, no trade, no injury, no depth-chart demotion. What changed is the coaching voice evaluating him. Cleveland fired its old staff and hired Todd Monken, previously the Baltimore Ravens' offensive coordinator, as head coach in April. Monken inherits a back who profiles as a change-of-pace, pass-catching option (5-foot-8, 200 pounds) rather than the between-the-tackles grinder Cleveland tried to make him look like as a rookie.

What Changed Around Him

The bigger swings are in the room. Jerome Ford, last year's veteran insurance, wasn't retained. Quinshon Judkins, the presumptive lead back, is back after an ankle dislocation and fractured fibula ended his rookie season two games early; his per-carry average dropped from 4.82 YPC over his first four games to 3.04 YPC over his final ten, a real usage-durability flag. Cleveland also added Raheim "Rocket" Sanders off waivers from the Chargers, a bigger-bodied back (6-0, 230) who directly competes with Sampson for early-down and short-yardage snaps behind Judkins.

What They're Saying

"Cleveland's coaching staff tried using Sampson like Judkins, running him up the gut, which isn't his playstyle," Cade Cracas wrote for SI.com's Browns site on May 14, 2026, adding that when the staff "leaned into his strengths and got him outside the hashes, he showed that he could make plays come to life."

Dawgs By Nature's Chris Pokorny, previewing the running back room on July 7, 2026, projected Sampson as the third-down back but flagged a real risk: "He, along with Judkins, also struggled in pass protection as rookies. It'll be interesting to see if that compels Todd Monken to turn to another back when he comes to giving Judkins a breather", a direct nod to Sanders as the pass-pro alternative.

Both reads square with Nova's number: a low, receiving-dependent median with real bust risk if the staff doesn't trust him on passing downs.

The Buzz

There's no broad social groundswell here, Sampson isn't a name trending outside Cleveland's own fan sites. But Dawgs By Nature's own reader poll on the RB2 question split 63% Sampson to 24% Sanders, meaning the fanbase that watches this roster closest already expects him to win the change-of-pace job. That's mildly ahead of where Nova's algorithm currently sits him, and it's the kind of hyperlocal signal worth more than national hot-take volume.

Swing Factors

• Judkins missing time (+50 pts): a repeat of his 2025 fibula injury pushes early-down work to Sampson immediately.
• Monken's passing-back usage (+40 pts): Ravens-style offenses have historically funneled real target volume to backs; even a partial install lifts Sampson's 40-target rookie baseline.
• Pass-protection reps (-30 pts): if Monken doesn't trust him in protection, third-down snaps go to Sanders instead.
• Frame mismatch (-20 pts): at 200 pounds, betwen-the-tackles usage (his rookie deployment) produced 2.7 YPC, using him that way again caps everything.
• Browns QB situation (±): an unsettled quarterback room could suppress the whole offense's scoring, receiving back included.

If Everything Goes Right / If Everything Goes Wrong

If everything goes right: Judkins misses time again, Monken installs a real satellite-back package early, and Sampson's catch rate climbs toward the form that made him a home-run threat at Tennessee. He pushes into Nova's ceiling outcome, around 200 points, and becomes a streamable PPR flex in good matchups. Nova prices a tier-2-or-better season at 13%.

If everything goes wrong: Sanders wins early-down and passing-down work by default, Sampson's pass-pro limitations keep him tethered to obvious 3rd-and-long snaps only, and he settles near his 27-point floor, a name that never shows up on a redraft roster. Nova's 4% tier-1 odds tell you exactly how rare the breakout case is.

Nova's Edge

There's no ADP to argue with yet, which is itself the finding: almost nobody outside deep dynasty and best-ball formats has bothered to rank Sampson at all. Nova has. The number worth remembering is the format gap, RB-206 in PPR against RB-298 in Standard. That 92-spot swing is the whole profile in one stat: every ounce of Sampson's value is tied to targets, not carries, and whether Monken's scheme delivers those targets is the single biggest lever on his season.

The Bottom Line

Sampson is a free-agent-only asset in single-QB redraft leagues and stays there until camp reporting shows him running with the first- or second-team passing-down package. In PPR dynasty and best-ball, he's a cheap Judkins handcuff worth rostering, Judkins already has one season-ending injury on his record, and Sampson is next in line if it happens again. The gradeable claim: if Judkins misses multiple games in 2026, Sampson should clear Nova's 97-point preseason budget before Week 12. If Judkins stays healthy all year, he won't come close.