Sam Howell
QBSEA· bye 11· Nova #141 · T7DNA H
-27.3
VORP
15.35
PPR / game
Nova overview
Sam Howell is Nova's 141st-ranked player overall (QB, SEA), in Tier 7. Nova projects roughly 199 points this season, about 15.35 per game.
There is no market ADP on him yet, so this is Nova's read alone.
Nova gives him about a 3% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 54 points (floor) to 255 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades H (High variance). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks tough.
15.2
Early SOS (wk 1-4)
10 tough
Playoff SOS (wk 15-17)
11
Bye week
Season budget pace
full board →-38%BehindBuy low
36.1 of 142.4 banked · 4wrevised 109.7
-38% behind pace, a bounce-back candidate if the role holds, a buy-low window.
Per-game points distribution
25%
Bust <10 pts
43%
Solid 10–20 pts
32%
Boom >20 pts
Not one number. The probability of every weekly outcome, from the player’s real week-to-week range across 18 games.
Season outcome range
floor 54 ptmed 199 ptceil 255 pt
3%
P(tier-1)
9%
P(tier-2+)
QB22-QB52
likely finish
Report card
Upside · P(tier-1)3%
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 141 | T7 | -27.3 | 3% | QB22-QB52 | 53.5-254.5 |
| Half PPR | 133 | T8 | -20 | 3% | QB22-QB53 | 53.4-254.1 |
| Standard | 126 | T9 | -12.3 | 3% | QB22-QB53 | 53.3-253.8 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 94 | T7 | 3.6 | 3% | QB22-QB52 | 53.5-254.5 |