Nick Chubb
RBHOU· bye 8· Nova #333 · T7DNA S
-95.4
VORP
5.71
PPR / game
Nova overview
Nick Chubb is Nova's 333rd-ranked player overall (RB, HOU), in Tier 7. Nova projects roughly 74 points this season, about 5.71 per game.
There is no market ADP on him yet, so this is Nova's read alone.
Nova gives him about a 1% shot at a tier-1 season, with simulated outcomes from roughly 19 points (floor) to 148 (ceiling). His week-to-week profile grades S (Consistent). His fantasy-playoff schedule (weeks 15-17) looks average.
18.8
Early SOS (wk 1-4)
12.3
Playoff SOS (wk 15-17)
8
Bye week
Season budget pace
full board →74 pt pool
Full preseason budget. Weekly drawdown and pace tracking begin Week 1.
Per-game points distribution
78%
Bust <10 pts
22%
Solid 10–20 pts
0%
Boom >20 pts
Not one number. The probability of every weekly outcome, from the player’s real week-to-week range across 25 games.
Season outcome range
floor 19 ptmed 74 ptceil 148 pt
1%
P(tier-1)
6%
P(tier-2+)
RB50-RB84
likely finish
Report card
Upside · P(tier-1)1%
Rank edge vs market+26
Nova rank by format
| Format | Nova Rank | Tier | VORP | P(Tier-1) | Finish range | Total P10-P90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 333 | T7 | -95.4 | 1% | RB50-RB84 | 19.1-147.7 |
| Half PPR | 346 | T8 | -85.7 | 2% | RB48-RB83 | 17.8-137.7 |
| Standard | 369 | T9 | -74.4 | 2% | RB46-RB82 | 16.5-127.7 |
| 2QB / Superflex | 352 | T7 | -96.6 | 1% | RB50-RB84 | 19.1-147.7 |