Lineup Optimizer

The Lineup Optimizer is NovaPredict's start/sit tool. It finds your best starting lineup by win probability, not by adding up projected points. That distinction is the point: because NovaPredict models each player as a full range of outcomes rather than a single number, the optimizer can weigh floors, ceilings, and boom or bust odds when deciding who gives your lineup the best chance to win. Its start/sit calls do not disappear after the games. They feed a public calibration ledger, part of NovaPredict's accountability record, starting Week 1 of the 2026 season.

What It Does

• Selects your best starting lineup by win probability.
• Draws on NovaPredict's outcome ranges per player, floor to ceiling, rather than single point projections.
• Produces start/sit win probabilities that are graded publicly: each call is checked against what actually happened.
• Feeds a public calibration ledger for those start/sit win probabilities, beginning Week 1 of the 2026 season.

What It Does Not Do

• It does not simply start the players with the highest projected points. Win probability and point maximization are not the same objective, and the optimizer targets the former.
• It does not have a track record yet, and NovaPredict does not pretend it does. No backtested win rates, no historical accuracy percentages. The record is earned live, starting Week 1 of the 2026 season.
• It does not set your lineup in your league platform for you. It recommends the lineup; you submit it.

Status

Live now as part of the in-season toolset. Pending: the public calibration ledger begins filling in with graded start/sit calls at Week 1 of the 2026 season, as part of the site-wide accountability record. Nothing before that date counts.

Follow the graded record at /accountability. Related: The Accountability Record, which explains how every call gets locked and scored.