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← Features
Feature

The Accountability Record

NovaPredict locks every projection before kickoff and grades it in public with CRPS, Coverage, and Brier plus skill. The record starts Week 1 2026.

See the record →

The Accountability Record is NovaPredict's public, locked, graded accuracy record. Every projection is locked before kickoff and then graded against what actually happened, including the misses. The grades are published using proper scoring rules: CRPS, Coverage, and Brier plus skill, along with a calibration ledger for start/sit win probabilities. The record starts filling in Week 1 of the 2026 season, and NovaPredict makes no backtested accuracy claims before then. Not one. If a number is not on the live record, NovaPredict has not claimed it.

What It Does

  • Locks every projection before kickoff. No revising after the games, no quiet edits.
  • Grades every locked projection in public, misses included.
  • Publishes CRPS, which grades the whole predicted distribution, not just whether a single number was close.
  • Publishes Coverage: how often reality actually lands inside the floor-to-ceiling band, measured against an 80 percent target.
  • Publishes Brier plus skill, which grades the boom and bust probabilities against guessing.
  • Maintains a calibration ledger for start/sit win probabilities, fed by the Lineup Optimizer's calls.

What It Does Not Do

  • It does not include backtested results. Historical player props are effectively unobtainable, so the record can only be earned live, and NovaPredict never presents a historical or backtested accuracy percentage as if it were a live record.
  • It does not cherry-pick. Locked means graded, hits and misses alike.
  • It does not exist yet as a filled-in record. As of July 2026 the record is empty by design; it begins at Week 1 of the 2026 season. Any claim that NovaPredict "has been X percent accurate" is false today.

Status

Pending the season. The infrastructure is the product here: projections lock before kickoff and grading is public. The live record begins Week 1 of the 2026 season, with calibration updates following as the season progresses. Until then, the honest description of NovaPredict's accuracy is: no record yet, on purpose.

Watch the record fill in at /accountability. Related: Challenge the Model, where your own calls are scored by the same standard.

See the record →